DUBAI (Realist English). Iran’s expanding military campaign across the Persian Gulf and beyond is putting growing pressure on global energy supplies, raising concerns about severe economic consequences if the conflict continues.
During the buildup to the US-Israeli offensive that began a week ago, Tehran repeatedly warned that it would retaliate against any attack and could destabilize the wider region. Those warnings appear to be materializing as Iranian missile and drone strikes spread across the Gulf and recently reached Azerbaijan.
Although Iranian officials say the attacks target US and Israeli interests, strikes have also affected energy infrastructure that underpins global oil and gas markets.
One of the most significant developments has been increased pressure on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a strategic waterway through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. According to shipping data reported by Lloyd’s List, more than 200 vessels have been stranded after disruptions to maritime traffic.
Energy facilities across the region have also been affected. Qatar temporarily halted operations at its major liquefied natural gas complexes in Mesaieed and Ras Laffan after Iranian drones targeted nearby industrial areas. Qatar is the world’s largest LNG exporter, accounting for about 20% of global supply, making the disruption particularly significant for energy markets in Asia and Europe.
Elsewhere in the region, another wave of Iranian attacks forced the shutdown of the world’s largest oil refinery in Saudi Arabia. Iraqi oil production facilities and Israeli gas fields have also been affected, while ports in Dubai — among the busiest logistics hubs in the world — have reported disruptions.
In an assessment released Friday, the United Kingdom’s Foreign Office said that although the intensity of Iranian missile and drone attacks has slowed compared with the first days of the conflict, the range of targets is widening. Increasingly, Iranian strikes appear to focus on economic infrastructure and the energy sector.
Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warned that prolonged fighting could have severe consequences for the global economy.
“If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted,” he told the Financial Times. “Energy prices will rise everywhere, shortages will appear, and there could be a chain reaction affecting global manufacturing.”
Analysts say the greatest risk lies in the Strait of Hormuz. Dr. Yousef Alshammari, president of the London College of Energy Economics, said that a sustained disruption or blockade of the shipping route could trigger a global recession.
“As we approach the summer, the risk of a worldwide economic downturn increases if the strait remains disrupted,” he said.
Gas prices have already surged sharply, particularly in Europe, where increases of more than 50% have been observed in some markets. Oil prices have risen more moderately, partly because global demand remains relatively subdued and supply levels are still adequate.
Meanwhile, Iran’s decision to strike targets beyond the Gulf, including Azerbaijan, has puzzled some observers. Former US ambassador to Azerbaijan Matthew Bryza said such attacks appear difficult to reconcile with a coherent military strategy.
“It is hard to understand why Iran would attack Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan region, since Tehran has no clear interest in drawing Azerbaijan directly into the conflict,” Bryza said.
He noted that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev had earlier expressed sympathy toward Iran following the killing of its supreme leader and had even assisted Iranian evacuation efforts from Beirut.
Bryza suggested that Iran may be attempting to create broader economic disruption to increase political pressure on Washington, including through higher energy prices and supply chain shocks.
Another possible explanation, he said, is that decentralized decision-making within Iran’s military structure may be shaping the current campaign, especially after the death of senior Iranian leadership figures.
Under such conditions, individual commanders may be making operational decisions independently, even if those actions do not align with a broader strategic plan.
