TOKYO (Realist English). In a significant departure from its postwar pacifist stance, Japan is positioning itself as a rising player in the global arms trade, seeking to bolster both national security and industrial competitiveness.
Defense Minister Gen Nakatani confirmed in a recent interview with Nikkei that Tokyo aims to ramp up defense exports — marking a major shift in Japan’s arms policy, which has traditionally focused on supplying the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF).
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has reinforced this pivot by becoming the first sitting premier to attend DSEI Japan, the country’s largest defense industry exhibition, underscoring the government’s growing focus on defense production and exports.
While global arms spending is surging, analysts say Japan’s motivations are rooted more in strategic imperatives than profit. “The primary objective is to deepen interoperability and defense cooperation with allied nations,” said Rintaro Inoue, research associate at Tokyo’s Institute of Geoeconomics (IOG).
Defense exports allow for standardization of military hardware and joint training programs, helping align Japan more closely with partners like the United States and Europe. This rationale was embedded in the 2013 doctrine of “Proactive Contribution to Peace”, introduced by late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who also reinterpreted Japan’s constitution to expand the JSDF’s international role.
Rebuilding an atrophied industrial base
According to Inoue, Japan’s domestic defense industry had long been in decline, with over 100 companies exiting the sector in the last two decades. The heavy reliance on U.S. systems — such as F-35 fighter jets and SPY-7 radar — left Japanese suppliers sidelined and unable to scale. Exports, experts say, offer the economies of scale necessary to revive domestic manufacturing.
“Without a reliable, sustained demand base, even essential munitions aren’t profitable to produce,” said Naoko Aoki, political scientist at the RAND Corporation. “Exports allow these firms to justify new investments, expand production capacity, and reduce unit costs.”
Still, Japan remains a marginal player in global arms markets. In 2024, the country’s exports totaled just $21 million in TIV (trend-indicator value) — accounting for only 0.1% of global arms exports, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). By contrast, South Korea exported $936 million (3.3%), and China $1.13 billion (3.9%).
Investor David Roche, of Quantum Strategy, believes demand will exceed supply globally for the next decade, making defense a critical growth sector. “If Japan continues to rely on the U.S. for its defense, especially under a transactional Trump administration, it will be forced to pay more — or build its own capacity.”
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized this point at the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue, urging allies to increase defense spending. “If NATO countries are pledging 5% of GDP, key Asian allies must not lag — especially with the threat from North Korea,” he said.
Legal reforms enable exports
Japan’s strict arms export laws — grounded in the 1967 “Three Principles” — were gradually loosened under Abe and further eased by former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in 2023. The latest rules permit licensed manufacturing and re-export of defense equipment, such as Japan’s Patriot missiles sent to the U.S. to replenish its depleted stockpiles.
Experts say these steps are necessary but not sufficient for Japan to compete with regional players like South Korea. Inoue warns that Japan faces long-term demographic challenges, including an aging workforce and shrinking population, which may hinder industrial revival. “It’s going to be hard to bring back large-scale manufacturing,” he noted.
Aoki agrees, pointing out that while Japan has the technical expertise, export regulations remain restrictive. “In the near term, Japan will likely use defense exports more to support its industrial base and deepen ties with trusted partners than to compete aggressively on the open market,” she said.
As global demand for arms grows and security alliances evolve, Japan’s strategy marks a careful recalibration — balancing domestic revitalization, geopolitical alignment, and the country’s enduring aversion to militarism.
