Realist: news and analytics

Русский/English/العربية

  • News
  • Russia
  • Caucasus
  • Opinion
  • Interviews
  • Experts
No Result
View All Result
Realist: news and analytics
  • News
  • Russia
  • Caucasus
  • Opinion
  • Interviews
  • Experts
No Result
View All Result
Realist: news and analytics

Relationships with Kazakhstan are under Putin’s personal control

An alliance with Kazakhstan is an indispensable condition for the success of any political projects of the Kremlin in the post-Soviet space, primarily in Central Asia. In this sense, Moscow is interested not only in reliable partnership relations with Nursultan, but also in the internal stability of Kazakhstan. And there may be some problems with this. Kazakhstan is currently undergoing a rather dramatic process of internal transformation associated with the creation of a new political system, political scientist Andrey Serenko notes.

   
August 27, 2022, 11:03
Opinion
Vladimir Putin and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Image: kremlin.ru

Vladimir Putin and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Image: kremlin.ru

MOSCOW (Realist English). Kazakhstan has the status of a strategic priority for the Russian leadership, and the Kazakh direction of the Kremlin’s diplomacy is under the personal control of Vladimir Putin. Obviously, Kazakhstan has also in past had a special significance for Moscow and its policy in the near abroad. The conflict with the Ukraine and the related international consequences for Russia further contributed to the increase in Kazakhstan’s rates.

Russia, no doubt, is extremely interested in maintaining strategic partnership relations with Kazakhstan. And this is important not only from the point of view of countering the regime of Western sanctions, which seek to exclude the Russian Federation as much as possible from the established format of international relations. An alliance with Kazakhstan is an indispensable condition for the success of any political projects of the Kremlin in the post-Soviet space, primarily in Central Asia.

In this sense, Moscow is interested not only in reliable partnership relations with Nursultan, but also in the internal stability of Kazakhstan. And there may be some problems with this. Kazakhstan is currently undergoing a rather dramatic process of internal transformation associated with the creation of a new political system. This restructuring, conceived by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, involves rather deep purges in various echelons of the Kazakh elite (getting rid of the personnel legacy of Nursultan Nazarbayev), betting on new civic activism, awakening public energies on the ground.

It is not yet clear what consequences this may lead to. The old elites, who are threatened with demolition from status and resource positions, are unlikely to agree to leave the political scene voluntarily. The social energies awakened by Tokayev’s liberalization are by no means constructive a priori and may turn into new challenges and threats for him after some time.

It seems that the risks of Perestroika 2.0, a kind of remake of Gorbachev’s Spring, may not be fully calculated for Kazakhstan. Moreover, these risks can strengthen factors such as the weakness of the republican power structures (which was clearly seed during the January 2022 events), the aggressiveness of organized criminal communities, as well as the growing popularity of various trends and projects of political Islam.

Moscow is interested in the success of Tokayev’s restructuring, because, otherwise, Kazakhstan may be overwhelmed by a political crisis with grave consequences like the Ukrainian Maidan of 2013. Russia will be ready to provide the current president of Kazakhstan with all possible support so that Tokayev’s reform experiment, on the one hand, strengthens his position, and, on the other hand, creates a new balance of power that would work to stabilize the situation in the country, and not provoke new acute wars in the Kazakh elites.

Unfortunately, as many Kazakh observers note, it is impossible to exclude a repetition in the future of the events that shook the republic in January 2022. At that time, the situation was stabilized quickly enough only due to the introduction of CSTO forces, whose backbone were the Russian military personnel, into Kazakhstan at the request of President Tokayev. Moscow would very much not want to do this again, so it will closely monitor the political processes in Kazakhstan, without interfering in them, but, obviously, periodically bringing its assessments to the Kazakh leader. Including through the format of personal meetings and telephone conversations between Vladimir Putin and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

Andrey Serenko is the Head of the Center for the Study of Afghan Politics, Special to Realist English

RussiaRussia’s Foreign PolicyAsiaKazakhstanKazakhstan’s Foreign PolicyRussia-Kazakhstan Relations
Previous Post

Why are enemies of the Armenian people trying to seize Artsakh and Syunik

Next Post

Erdoğan has surpassed the two-faced Janus

Related Posts

Victor Mnatsakanyan
Opinion

Yerevan should be a people city

4 September, 2023
Mikhail Mishustin and Xi Jinping. Photo: Maxim Stulov / Vedomosti
Opinion

Results of Mishustin’s visit to China: the struggle for world leadership takes on more concrete features

30 May, 2023
Eduard Polatov: The genocide of the Greeks in Turkey is one of the dark pages in the history of the Turkish people
Opinion

Eduard Polatov: The genocide of the Greeks in Turkey is one of the dark pages in the history of the Turkish people

19 May, 2023
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and Recep Erdoğan. Image: dha.com.tr
Opinion

Erdogan’s rule is under real threat

9 May, 2023
Jacques Attali
Opinion

Jacques Attali: The world is facing a large-scale financial crisis

22 April, 2023
Image: scmp.com
Opinion

Union of Russia and China: who will win?

5 April, 2023
Most Popular
Most Popular
Donald Trump and Ron Desantis. Image: mediaproxy.salon.com

DeSantis is betting on the polarization of American society

31 May, 2023

WASHINGTON (Realist English). Florida Governor Ron Desantis will find it extremely difficult to defend his position, competing with ex-President, The...

Aram Torosyan on cinema, culture and beauty of Armenia

Aram Torosyan on cinema, culture and beauty of Armenia

24 May, 2023

YEREVAN (Realist English). Aram Torosyan, Director of Academy Films, answered these and other questions of the Realist News Agency. What...

Eduard Polatov: The genocide of the Greeks in Turkey is one of the dark pages in the history of the Turkish people

Eduard Polatov: The genocide of the Greeks in Turkey is one of the dark pages in the history of the Turkish people

19 May, 2023

YEREVAN (Realist English). 32 years have passed since the Phoenix Greek Society of Armenia, renamed to the Patrida organization, appealed...

Barack Obama. Image: cnn.com

When a problem arises in the world, we always look at how Washington responds — Barack Obama

4 May, 2023

ZURICH (Realist English). Former US President Barack Obama spoke in Zurich on the evening of April 29. The former head...

Opinion

Victor Mnatsakanyan

Yerevan should be a people city

4 September, 2023

YEREVAN (Realist English). Time and events make us look at many things in a new way, have a new attitude...

Mikhail Mishustin and Xi Jinping. Photo: Maxim Stulov / Vedomosti

Results of Mishustin’s visit to China: the struggle for world leadership takes on more concrete features

30 May, 2023

BEIJING (English Realist). The visit of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to China has ended. This is one of the...

Eduard Polatov: The genocide of the Greeks in Turkey is one of the dark pages in the history of the Turkish people

Eduard Polatov: The genocide of the Greeks in Turkey is one of the dark pages in the history of the Turkish people

19 May, 2023

YEREVAN (Realist English). 32 years have passed since the Phoenix Greek Society of Armenia, renamed to the Patrida organization, appealed...

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and Recep Erdoğan. Image: dha.com.tr

Erdogan’s rule is under real threat

9 May, 2023

ANKARA (Realist English). There are less than 10 days left before the presidential elections in Turkey. There, for the first...

All rights reserved.

© 2017-2022

  • About Us
  • Mission and Values
  • Contact Us
  • Privacy Policy

Follow Realist English

No Result
View All Result
  • News
  • Russia
  • Caucasus
  • Opinion
  • Interviews
  • Experts

Русский/English/العربية