MOSCOW (Realist English). While Russia’s oil revenues have been in the spotlight due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, other export sectors are also undergoing tectonic shifts. Analysis of data from the Federal Customs Service, Russian Railways and industry sources shows that the Russian economy is facing both new opportunities and serious challenges amid the global energy crisis.
Gas and LNG: the European paradox
Despite sanctions and EU plans to phase out Russian gas, supplies to Europe have risen sharply. Average daily natural gas supplies via TurkStream in March increased by 22% year-on-year, reaching 55 million cubic meters per day, with a total monthly volume of 1.7 billion cubic meters.
Even more impressive was the performance of liquefied natural gas (LNG): exports to Europe in March hit an absolute record, rising 38% year-on-year to 2.5 billion cubic meters. This helped partially offset the decline in pipeline exports and brought in foreign exchange earnings estimated at no less than $1.5–2 billion per month.
Grain and food: record shipments
The agricultural sector became one of the main beneficiaries of the Middle East crisis. Buyers, fearing supply disruptions due to the war, actively increased purchases. Grain exports through the ports of Novorossiysk in March rose 2.4 times to 4.3 million tons.
Key partner Egypt increased purchases fourfold, importing 1.25 million tons of wheat, while Turkey raised consumption to 398,000 tons. Overall, food and agricultural raw material exports in January–February rose 5.7% to $6.4 billion. However, profitability remains low: export margins are around $5 per ton, whereas at the beginning of the year they were “around zero.”
Metals and chemicals: growth amid sanctions
Russian metallurgists are also increasing export shipments. According to Russian Railways data, in March producers shipped 1.9 million tons of steel products for export. The bulk came from steel billet — 1.1 million tons, up 12% from February.
Iron ore exports rose to 1.6 million tons. In value terms, exports of metals and metal products in January–February increased by 31.7% to $11.9 billion. The chemical industry also showed positive dynamics: exports in January–February rose 6.8% to $5 billion, helped by increased demand for fertilizers. The export structure is traditionally dominated by mineral fertilizers, synthetic rubber and plastics.
Coal, fertilizers and timber: logistical dead end
Not all industries were able to take advantage of the favorable conditions. Thermal coal exports, despite a 6–27% increase in profitability due to the weakening ruble, faced logistical problems. Although coal loading for export on the Russian Railways network rose 5.9% in March to 15.9 million tons, the industry’s long-term prospects remain uncertain.
Mineral fertilizer shipments through Baltic ports fell 12% in Q1 due to ice conditions and route changes. In addition, a ban on the export of ammonium nitrate was in effect from March 21 to April 21. Timber export shipments on the Russian Railways network rose 16.8% in March to 995,000 tons, but exports of unprocessed timber remain under pressure.
Military-technical cooperation: a $70 billion order book
Despite sanctions, Russia remains one of the world’s largest arms exporters. In 2025, foreign exchange earnings from arms sales exceeded $15 billion, and the export order book for 2026 is estimated at nearly $70 billion. Products were supplied to more than 30 countries, including India, China and Algeria, and military export volumes are set to increase significantly in 2026.
Electricity: stable exports
Inter RAO, the sole operator of electricity exports and imports, reported that supply volumes in Q1 2026 increased compared to the same period last year. The main destinations remain Kazakhstan, Georgia and Mongolia, while supplies to China have been temporarily suspended.
Ban on gasoline exports
The situation in the oil product market deserves special attention. The Russian government introduced a full ban on gasoline exports for all market participants from April 1, 2026. The restrictions, which will last until July 31, are designed to prevent a fuel shortage on the domestic market ahead of the summer driving season.
The global rise in fuel prices due to the conflict in Iran makes exports more attractive, creating risks of a outflow of petroleum products from the country.
