MOSCOW (Realist English). The traditional model of power transfer in Russia is no longer viable, and the country is instead approaching a broader systemic transformation, political analyst Ilya Grashchenkov said in an interview with Realist News Agency.
Grashchenkov, director of the Center for Regional Policy Development, argued that the key question is no longer who President Vladimir Putin might designate as a successor, but how the political system itself will evolve as it begins to lose its established structure.
“Practically speaking, a transfer of power in the previous sense is no longer possible,” he said, suggesting that Russia is entering a phase where either a new political model will emerge or the current system will be reshaped within constitutional frameworks.
According to the analyst, earlier expectations of a controlled succession — preserving the existing system through a designated successor — have weakened significantly. He linked this shift to structural changes in the economy and elite balance following the war in Ukraine, which disrupted the previous model built around high oil revenues and integration with Western markets.
Grashchenkov said several elite groups have lost influence in recent years, including parts of the traditional oligarch class and networks associated with the late Yevgeny Prigozhin. He also pointed to challenges within the circle linked to former defense minister Sergei Shoigu, whose position has weakened following personnel changes and legal cases involving members of his former team.
Russia’s political landscape is now characterized by competition among ideological visions, the analyst said. Some factions advocate for more conservative or even imperial models of governance, while others favor normalization and a return to constitutional principles as the basis for a more institutionalized state.
Within this transition, influence is shifting toward actors who combine access to resources — including financial, media, and security capabilities — with the ability to articulate a vision for the future.
Grashchenkov described the emerging pool of potential post-Putin figures as a relatively broad but structurally similar group, including technocratic administrators, mid-level political figures, and representatives of regional and security elites. He suggested that regional governors could play a larger role at the federal level, even if not as direct successors.
Recent developments within Russia’s power structures provide context for these dynamics. Following Prigozhin’s death in 2023, networks linked to the Wagner Group have diminished in influence. Meanwhile, several former senior defense officials, including Ruslan Tsalikov, Dmitry Bulgakov, Pavel Popov, and Timur Ivanov, have faced legal action, with Ivanov sentenced to 13 years in prison on corruption charges.
Shoigu, who left the post of defense minister in 2024 to become secretary of the Security Council, has maintained a public role but seen parts of his former network reshaped.
Analytically, the shift described by Grashchenkov points to a transition from a personalized system of power toward a more fragmented and competitive elite structure, where succession may be replaced by institutional or hybrid models.
The key uncertainty is whether this transformation will lead to a more stable and institutionalized political system, or result in prolonged elite competition with unpredictable outcomes for governance and policy continuity.
