BERLIN (Realist English). In an article published July 6 in Foreign Affairs, Wolfgang Ischinger, Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, former German State Secretary and former German ambassador to the US, warns that the transatlantic alliance has entered a dangerous phase where the material strength of allies means nothing without mutual trust.
“A crisis of trust can nullify any benefits that Europe’s new defence commitments bring to the alliance,” Ischinger writes.
‘Europe Has Stopped Being a Free Rider’
The main paradox of the current moment, in Ischinger’s view, is that the US risks losing an ally precisely when it is becoming genuinely valuable. On paper, the transatlantic alliance is stronger and more balanced than ever.
Nearly all NATO members have met or exceeded the 2% of GDP defence spending target by 2025, and defence spending by European allies and Canada grew by 20% between 2024 and 2025.
European allies and Canada now account for 40% of total NATO defence spending, compared with 30% in 2020. If Europe meets NATO’s 2035 targets, its spending will exceed $800 billion — nearly matching US spending in 2025.
“Europe has ceased to be a free rider and is rapidly becoming a strategic asset,” Ischinger concludes.
How Washington Is Destroying Trust
However, according to Ischinger, it is precisely at this moment that Washington is systematically undermining allies’ trust. The Trump administration:
- did not consult with Europe before launching the war against Iran;
- in negotiations on Ukraine, acts not as a representative of collective allied interests, but as a “mediator between Russia and NATO”;
- publicly threatened to annex Greenland and imposed tariffs on European countries.
In May 2026, a poll conducted in 15 European countries by the European Council on Foreign Relations showed that a quarter of Europeans now see the US as a rival or even an adversary — and this figure is growing.
As Ischinger reminds us, “when American leaders announce troop withdrawals suddenly and as punishment — as happened in early May, when Trump announced the withdrawal of thousands of US troops from Germany after Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticised the war against Iran — they reinforce the perception of unbalanced relations and further undermine trust.”
What Washington Stands to Lose
Ischinger warns that if the trust crisis persists, the consequences for Washington will be serious. Europeans may begin seeking alternatives to transatlantic partnership — from deepening economic ties with China to resuming political and energy relations with Russia.
At the same time, Europe has already proven its value: in 2025, European countries increased financial and humanitarian support for Ukraine by nearly 60%, and military support by 67%, spending more than $80 billion. The EU also provided Ukraine with a loan package worth more than $100 billion.
“US allies have essentially allowed Washington to reduce its involvement in the war without seriously threatening Ukraine’s prospects — precisely what American officials have long wanted,” Ischinger notes.
How to Save the Alliance
Ischinger proposes concrete steps to restore trust at the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara:
- Europe must present a clear and sustainable plan to meet its defence commitments and demonstrate readiness to take on a larger share of conventional deterrence and defence of the continent.
- The US, in turn, must reaffirm its commitment to the alliance, discuss with allies the details of changing defence responsibilities, and coordinate possible troop withdrawals.
- Washington should involve Europe in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and use NATO as the primary platform for coordination on common security issues.
“The US must also recognise that Europe needs to reduce its dependence on the American defence industrial base,” Ischinger writes. “If Europe wants to take on greater responsibility for its own defence, it must spend more at home, so that defence investments create jobs and generate domestic economic returns.”
‘Europe Is Finally Doing More. Will Washington See It?’
For decades, Washington complained that Europe was not doing enough. Now that Europe is finally doing more, the question is whether American leaders are ready to recognise the opportunity before them.
“If the US is ready to treat Europe as a genuine partner, it will gain not only a stronger ally, but also a more sustainable foundation for its own global leadership,” Ischinger concludes.
