WASHINGTON (Realist English). The world has entered a new arms race, comparable in scale of investment and strategic stakes to the Cold War era, but radically different in its content.
As Bloomberg noted in a July 5, 2026, report, “Cold War” nuclear arsenals are becoming a thing of the past — replaced by hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence systems, space weapons and drone swarms.
World powers are betting that being first in these technologies will give them an insurmountable advantage on the battlefield.
Global Spending: $2.9 Trillion and Growing Appetites
The scale of what is happening is striking. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), global military spending reached a record $2.9 trillion in 2025. By the end of 2026, according to Forecast International, global defence budgets will exceed $2.6 trillion, an increase of 8.1% compared to 2025.
Analysts at Wedbush Securities forecast that the figure could reach $3 trillion in 2026 itself.
The race for control over future battlefields is estimated at approximately $2 trillion — the amount countries are willing to invest in developing new weapons systems. This sum covers not only the development of hypersonic missiles and AI systems, but also the creation of space infrastructure, counter‑drone defence and autonomous combat systems.
Hypersonics: The Race in Which the US Is Playing Catch‑Up
Hypersonic weapons — capable of speeds exceeding Mach 5 and manoeuvring mid‑flight — have become a top priority for the world’s leading militaries. China, according to open sources, continues to demonstrate progress, including releasing a video in June 2026 of a DF‑17 hypersonic missile launch.
Russia, in turn, has conducted test launches of hypersonic missiles, including from a submarine. According to a number of analysts, the US is lagging behind in this race due to delays and limited testing capabilities.
Washington is taking urgent steps to catch up. The US Army has already begun deploying the Dark Eagle hypersonic system — the country’s first operational ground‑based hypersonic missile.
On June 24, 2026, Lockheed Martin unveiled a new hypersonic system, the “Next Generation Glide Body,” which is claimed to be significantly cheaper to produce. At the same time, the Pentagon, in its FY2026 budget, has allocated multi‑billion‑dollar investments in hypersonic systems, linking them with AI targeting systems and quantum navigation.
Artificial Intelligence: ‘Automated Mutual Destruction’
Artificial intelligence is seen as a factor capable of changing the very foundations of military confrontation. According to The New York Times, China, the US, Russia and other countries have significantly stepped up their programmes to create AI‑based weapons systems. The race is being compared to the dawn of the nuclear age in the 1940s.
In September 2025, at a military parade in Beijing, China demonstrated drones capable of operating autonomously alongside fighter jets. This caused alarm in the Pentagon, which concluded that the US is lagging behind China in unmanned combat systems programmes.
In response, US company Anduril began production of AI‑powered drones at its Ohio plant in March 2026, three months ahead of schedule.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe, in early July 2026, called AI weapons “digital nuclear weapons” with enormous destructive potential. Anduril founder Palmer Luckey warned that Russia, China and the US are building AI arsenals for “mutually assured destruction.”
At the same time, experts warn: AI systems capable of independently identifying and engaging targets lower the threshold for conflict and carry risks of unintended escalation.
Space: The New Theatre of War
Space has finally ceased to be a “peaceful” domain. As Axios notes, “tomorrow’s wars will be fought in the stars as much as on earth.” The US, China and Russia are actively building up military capabilities in space.
In June 2026, the Pentagon stated that Russia had launched a space weapon and placed it on the same orbit as a US government satellite. Israel announced plans to develop space‑based lasers for offensive operations.
France has allocated an additional €42 billion for the implementation of its space strategy through 2040, while Germany has adopted its first national space strategy, planning to spend €350 billion on space security by 2030.
US Space Command, according to Axios, played a key role in the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, providing navigation for troops in a blacked‑out Caracas. The contract for the “Golden Dome” missile defence system is valued at $151 billion, and more than 2,400 applications have already been submitted.
Drones: Cheap Weapons Changing the Economics of War
Unmanned systems have become a symbol of the new era. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated that inexpensive drones can destroy targets worth millions of dollars. European countries — Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland and the Baltic states — have actively joined the “drone race” against Russia, locating production on their own territory.
At the ILA Berlin 2026 airshow, Airbus presented the concept of the U760 Ravenstorm combat drone, capable of operating alongside manned fighters. At the same time, NATO faces the problem of the economic inefficiency of drone interception: a single sortie by two fighters for interception costs more than €85,000. In response, the alliance is accelerating the development of specialised counter‑drone systems.
Who Is Ahead?
Analysts are divided in their assessments. According to The New York Times, China and Russia are ahead of the US in the deployment of some categories of autonomous systems. At the same time, the US leads in developing AI systems for intelligence and cyberwarfare.
Not only superpowers are participating in the race: Japan, South Korea, India, Israel, France, Germany and the UK are actively building up their technological arsenals.
As Bloomberg summarises, the world has entered a “$2 trillion race,” with control over future battlefields at stake. The question is whether the international community will be able to establish rules of the game before new technologies make war even more unpredictable and devastating.
