LONDON (Realist English). Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude oil prices to fall to the low $50s per barrel by the end of 2026, driven by a mounting global surplus, Reuters reported Tuesday.
In a note to clients, the U.S. investment bank projected that oil oversupply would average 1.8 million barrels per day from the fourth quarter of 2025 through the end of 2026. This would add roughly 800 million barrels to global inventories, with OECD countries accounting for about one-third, or 270 million barrels.
According to Goldman, weaker demand in OECD economies will drag Brent’s fair value down from its current mid-$70s per barrel. “Brent prices are expected to remain near forward contract levels for the remainder of 2025, but may fall below those contracts in 2026 as OECD stockpiles grow,” the bank said.
However, the outlook could change if China accelerates its strategic stockpiling. Should Beijing double its current purchases to 0.8 million barrels per day, Goldman estimates the average Brent price in 2026 could rise by $6, to around $62 per barrel.
On Wednesday morning, Brent crude futures were trading at about $67 per barrel, while U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $63, Reuters noted.
