BAKU (Realist English). Azerbaijani opposition forces are increasingly voicing sharp criticism of the regime of Ilham Aliyev, accusing him of persecuting dissidents both inside the country and abroad. Human rights organisations document systematic pressure on critics, including in‑absentia arrests, politically motivated criminal cases, and attacks on opposition figures in Europe that have ended in murder.
Relations with Russia: ‘vassal of Moscow’ or ‘authoritarian tandem’?
The leader of the opposition Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan (PFPA), Ali Kerimli, strongly criticised Baku’s rapprochement with Moscow. In August 2025, he stated that the Azerbaijani authorities “as if nothing had happened restored allied relations with Russia, despite the failure to fulfil any of Baku’s demands.” In his view, a genuine exit of Azerbaijan from the “Russian orbit” is possible only after a change of political regime. In an interview with the Caucasus Chronicle, Kerimli stressed that the current authorities are a “vassal of Moscow”, incapable of conducting an independent foreign policy.
Analysts and opposition circles in Azerbaijan have repeatedly stated that Moscow does not view Baku as an equal partner, but rather as a “subordinate vassal state.” At the same time, according to experts, a complete rupture of relations is not in the interests of either Vladimir Putin or Aliyev, since both regimes depend on each other for security and economic issues.
Resonant anti‑Russian statements are made not only by the opposition but also by the pro‑government deputy of the ruling New Azerbaijan party, Rasim Musabekov. In an interview on Baku TV, he said that Azerbaijan should respond to Russia not with words but with deeds, specifically by selling weapons to Ukraine. He also called the Russian army incapable of combat, claiming that Azerbaijani soldiers are superior to Russians in the Caucasus, and that Russians “think a head is only needed to wear a cap.” In April 2026, Musabekov accused the Russian president of having “given Azerbaijan indigestion” while commenting on the Russian leader’s statements about the Karabakh settlement.
Murders and assassination attempts abroad
One of the most high‑profile crimes was the murder in France of opposition blogger Vidadi Isgandarli. In late September 2024, three unknown assailants broke into his home in the city of Mulhouse, inflicting at least 21 stab wounds and several blows to the head. Isgandarli died from his injuries in hospital on October 1. His family and human rights activists are convinced the attack was politically motivated. The French newspaper Libération published an investigation in November 2024 indicating that Azerbaijani special services systematically hunt opposition figures abroad, and that Isgandarli’s murder is only one link in this chain.
In March 2021, an assassination attempt was carried out in Nantes, France, against another opposition blogger, Magomed Mirzali, who survived after 16 stab wounds. In June 2025, a French court sentenced the organiser of one of three attacks on Mirzali, Polish citizen Khayyam Hagverdiyev, to ten years in prison, acknowledging the involvement of Azerbaijani special services. In April 2026, Mirzali was again attacked in France, suffering stab wounds — Reporters Without Borders called it an attempt to “silence him.”
The death of activist Bayram Mammadov in Turkey remains mysterious. His body was found in the sea off the coast of Istanbul in May 2021. Turkish police registered the death as “suspicious” and launched an investigation, but final conclusions have never been made public. Relatives and human rights activists insist on the version of murder, given Mammadov’s active opposition activities. Since 2021, public organisations have demanded that the Turkish and Azerbaijani authorities publish the results of the investigation.
Persecution in exile
Since the beginning of 2025, the Azerbaijani authorities have intensified a campaign against critics living abroad. According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), during this period, in‑absentia preventive measures have been taken against 24 people in emigration. They are charged under Article 281.2 of the Criminal Code (“Calls against the state”). HRW also reports that since March 2025, a number of criminal cases have been opened against exiled bloggers, often accompanied by in‑absentia arrests.
In December 2025, activists in exile appealed to the President of the European Parliament to protect Azerbaijani political emigrants who are being persecuted by Baku. Human rights defenders also called for international protection for Azerbaijani political emigrants. In its report, Amnesty International called Isgandarli’s murder a “failure of authorities to protect activists in exile.”
Domestic persecution
Opposition leaders are also subjected to systematic repression at home.
In December 2025, after a search of his home and arrest, PFPA leader Ali Kerimli was detained; Amnesty International called him a political prisoner. He was placed in custody, and human rights activists said this indicated a “strengthening of authoritarian practices” in Azerbaijan.
In April 2026, HRW demanded the immediate release of political scientist Ilgar Mammadov, chairman of the opposition group Republican Alternative (REAL), accused of organising mass riots in the city of Ismayilli. According to human rights activists, Mammadov was barred from participating in the 2025 presidential elections and has been subjected to politically motivated persecution. Amnesty International also called on the Azerbaijani government to respect international requirements and release Mammadov.
In December 2023, a member of the National Council of Democratic Forces, Tofig Yagublu, was arrested. In 2025, a court sentenced him to nine years in prison on fraud charges, but human rights activists considered the process “fabricated,” noting that the prosecution was based solely on the testimony of a single witness. In April 2026, HRW and other organisations called on the authorities to release Mammadov and Yagublu before trial.
In July 2023, economist and head of the ADPP party, Gubad Ibadoghlu, who openly accused Ilham Aliyev of corruption and authoritarianism, was detained. Human rights organisations call his arrest “fabricated” and call for his release.
Incident in Washington
In February 2026, Ilham Aliyev’s security guards attacked protesters outside the Waldorf Astoria hotel in Washington. The protesters were demanding the release of Azerbaijani political prisoners. One of the demonstrators, Rahim Yagublu, said the guards punched him in the jaw and then continued to kick him while he was already on the ground. The US Attorney’s Office opened an investigation into the incident, but the Azerbaijani authorities called it a “provocation by the radical opposition.”
