LONDON (Realist English). Over the past 24 hours, global oil prices have shown sluggish dynamics amid mixed signals about the prospects for US-Iran talks. Benchmark Brent and WTI are trading near multi-month lows, while the physical oil market signals a deep structural deficit. European gas (TTF) continues to fall under pressure from declining demand, while US Henry Hub balances near the lower end of its range.
Brent holds above $94, WTI above $91
Oil prices changed little during the Asian and European sessions on April 16. Traders remain skeptical about the possibility of a quick diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran, given repeated breakdowns in negotiations in the past.
As of mid-day:
- Brent (June futures) — in the range of $94.90 – $95.10 per barrel (a slight increase of 0.1–0.3%). According to OilWorld.ru, Brent lost 1.32% over the day, falling to $94.88.
- WTI (May futures) — $91.25 – $91.75 per barrel (+0.1–0.45%).
- Russian Urals continues to trade at a discount, which has narrowed by almost $10 relative to Brent in April.
The key factor holding prices back from a collapse remains the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. According to ING analysts, supply disruptions have affected about 13 million barrels per day. Goldman Sachs calculated that the current flow of crude oil through the strait is only 10% of normal levels (about 2.1 million barrels per day).
However, investor optimism about a possible truce is holding back growth. “Despite some hopes for de-escalation, market participants remain cautious, as talks between Washington and Tehran have repeatedly broken down even after signs of progress,” noted a Reuters review published on April 16.
Physical market: gap with futures reaches record levels
The most alarming signal comes from the physical oil market. On April 13, physical spot prices jumped to an all-time high of $148.87 per barrel, while Brent futures traded only slightly above $100. The gap between Dated Brent (the benchmark for immediate delivery) and futures contracts is now more than $20 per barrel. This is a classic sign of an acute shortage of “live” crude.
European and Asian refiners are forced to pay record premiums for alternative grades from the North Sea and Africa due to the inability to obtain usual volumes from the Persian Gulf.
Gas: TTF falls, Henry Hub at lows
The European gas market continued its decline. According to OilWorld.ru, the Dutch TTF fell 6.55% over the day — to €41.40 per megawatt-hour. This is a return to levels from January, when the Middle East conflict was just beginning.
Reasons include reduced industrial demand, a switch to coal generation, and record imports of LNG from the US, which is benefiting from weakened competition from Asia.
In the US, Henry Hub is trading near $2.59 per million British thermal units, only slightly above a 17-month low. Mild weather is reducing heating demand, and gas storage levels are above average. Nevertheless, damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant, which will take years to repair, could become a catalyst for future growth.
“Perfect storm” and double risks
Analysts are divided on how long the current respite will last.
- FXTM: Lukman Otunuga, Head of Market Research, calls the situation a “perfect storm” for energy markets, predicting triple-digit oil prices becoming the “new normal.”
- Goldman Sachs: The investment bank maintains its 2026 average Brent price forecast of $83 per barrel, but warns of risks both up and down. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month, Brent could jump to $120 per barrel in the third quarter.
- Morgan Stanley: Leaves its forecast unchanged — $110 per barrel in the second quarter and $100 in the third, expecting supply chains to take months to normalize even after the strait reopens.
- IEA: In its monthly report dated April 14, the agency predicted the first decline in global oil demand since 2020 (by 84,000 barrels per day) due to the destructive impact of high prices.
- Wells Fargo: The bank is using high prices to lock in profits, downgrading the energy sector to “underweight.” At the same time, its annual target range for WTI has been raised to $70–80.
- ING: Analysts forecast that WTI quotes will continue to fluctuate in a wide range of $80–100 per barrel until a sustainable agreement between the US and Iran is reached.
The energy market is frozen in an unstable equilibrium. On the one hand, diplomatic activity promises a quick truce. On the other, record physical oil prices and multi-billion dollar investments in infrastructure repair remind us that the structural crisis is far from over.
