MOSCOW (Realist English). Russia has rejected Turkey’s proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine and a resumption of diplomatic negotiations, dealing a new blow to Ankara’s mediation efforts and effectively burying hopes for a peaceful settlement ahead of the NATO summit to be held in Ankara on July 7–8.
According to Middle East Eye sources, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan put forward the initiative during a two‑day visit to Moscow on June 16–17, meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and President Vladimir Putin.
Fidan insisted on the need for “some kind of common idea on how to return to negotiations and a window for a ceasefire.”
However, according to a Russian source, “Moscow politely declined to discuss this idea.”
Russia’s Position
Moscow’s rejection demonstrates a hardening of its stance. The Kremlin insists that any lasting agreement requires Kyiv’s official recognition of the incorporation of Donbas into Russia. This condition, which Ukraine consistently rejects, makes any negotiations futile.
At the same time, Moscow publicly demonstrates its readiness for dialogue. Russia’s Ambassador to Turkey Sergei Vershinin stated that Russia views Istanbul as a convenient venue for negotiations and is ready to resume them from the point where they were interrupted in 2022.
However, these statements diverge from actual developments on the battlefield and diplomatic practice.
Victory on the Front Lines as an Argument
The Russian army continues its offensive. Moscow has extended its sovereignty over more than 80% of the former Donetsk region. Russian forces are conducting a campaign to encircle Kostyantynivka and Lyman.
According to The New York Times, Russian units have already entered Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka has been reduced to ruins, and Sloviansk and Kramatorsk remain the last major Ukrainian strongholds in the region.
Ukrainian officials dispute reports of rapid Russian advances but acknowledge that the situation on the eastern front remains extremely difficult.
People familiar with Ankara’s calculations noted that a successful Fidan initiative could have brought both sides to Turkey for the NATO summit in July. However, that scenario now appears unlikely.
Turkey has positioned itself as a potential mediator throughout the conflict, but according to sources in Ankara, there are currently “no prerequisites for resuming negotiations on Ukraine in Turkey.” The summit in Ankara, where tens of billions of dollars in new defence contracts are expected to be announced, will take place without a diplomatic breakthrough.
By rejecting Turkey’s proposal, Moscow has made it clear that any negotiations are possible only on its terms, with the key condition being Ukraine’s recognition of territorial losses. Military successes on the battlefield allow the Kremlin to maintain a tough stance. The prospects for a diplomatic settlement in the foreseeable future remain unclear.
Diplomatic Process at a Standstill
On June 28, Fidan stated at a joint press conference with his Canadian counterpart in Ottawa that Ankara is ready to once again provide a platform for negotiations between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations. He stressed that Turkey wants the war to end as soon as possible — “through dialogue and on the basis of international law.”
“At this stage, we see that the diplomatic process has reached a dead end, hostilities have intensified, and both sides are focused on achieving military success,” Fidan stated.
The Turkish foreign minister called on the international community to step up diplomatic efforts and confirmed: “We are once again ready to bring the Russian and Ukrainian delegations to the negotiating table in our country.”
On June 29, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, during a telephone conversation with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, stated that Ankara continues to work on reviving the negotiation process. The Turkish leader noted that Turkey is making diplomatic efforts to achieve lasting peace and to revitalise talks between the sides.
According to Erdoğan, both sides of the conflict trust Turkey: “As an ally that can speak with both sides, initiates processes that yield results, and has earned the trust of both sides through its fair stance, we will continue to actively contribute to peace efforts.”
On the eve of the NATO summit, European and Turkish diplomats stepped up contacts. On June 29–30, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas paid a two‑day official visit to Turkey.
The delegation included EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos and EU Home Affairs and Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner. Talks with Fidan covered the state of EU-Turkey relations, common geopolitical challenges and prospects for deeper cooperation.
Erdoğan, speaking at the NATO Parliamentary Summit in Istanbul on June 29, stressed the need to achieve results in settling the Russia-Ukraine war through dialogue. He also stated that the Ankara summit would assess global and regional events — “especially in Ukraine, the Gulf and Palestine.”
