LONDON (Realist English). The global oil market was frozen in uncertainty on April 22. Oil prices barely changed as investors assessed the prospects for peace talks between the United States and Iran after President Donald Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire indefinitely.
Brent futures were trading near $98.51 per barrel by the evening of April 22, virtually unchanged from the previous close. US light crude WTI fell slightly to $89.53 per barrel. The day before, both benchmark grades had risen by about 3%.
Unilateral extension of the ceasefire
Hours before the two‑week ceasefire established on April 7 was due to expire, Trump announced its indefinite extension. However, the decision appears unilateral: Iranian authorities did not request an extension and gave no official response. Tehran insists on the lifting of the naval blockade of Iranian ports as a precondition for continuing dialogue.
The Tasnim agency, linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said Tehran intends to seek the lifting of the blockade by force. At the same time, Trump confirmed that the US Navy would maintain the blockade, which the Iranian capital regards as an “act of war”.
The Strait of Hormuz and military incidents
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed: only three vessels passed through it in the last 24 hours. The situation is exacerbated by reports of armed attacks on at least three container ships in the strait, providing additional support to prices.
Hiroki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, noted that with no clarity around the talks and the Strait of Hormuz closed, the market lacks a clear direction. “If fighting does not resume, prices will likely remain near current levels,” the expert said.
Russian Urals — the most expensive in the world
Despite the uncertainty, Russian Urals crude continues to hold its position as the most expensive grade in the world. As of the morning of April 22, Urals quotes were near $101.5 per barrel, while Brent was trading in the range of $98–98.5 and WTI around $91.8.
The sharp rise in Russian oil prices began in mid‑April amid the intensification of the Middle East conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. At that time, Urals quotes rose to $115 and later exceeded $120 per barrel.
Gas prices in Europe accelerate
The European gas market has also reacted to the Middle East crisis. On the evening of April 21, exchange gas prices in Europe accelerated their rise, exceeding $526 per thousand cubic metres. As of 22:03 Moscow time on April 21, quotes reached $526.1, 7.3% higher than the previous trading day’s settlement price.
Average exchange gas prices in Europe for March rose 59% compared with February, exceeding $600 per thousand cubic metres for the first time since February 2023. The peak was reached on March 19 — $853.7.
Market situation and forecasts
Additional support for the market comes from data on US oil inventories. According to a preliminary estimate from the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude reserves in the country fell by 4.4 million barrels last week after three weeks of growth. Analysts expect an official decline of 1.2 million barrels according to US Energy Department data, to be released later on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its April report forecasts a further drop in global oil supplies. In March, supply fell by 10.1 million barrels per day to 97 million b/d. In April, according to IEA estimates, the decline will worsen: supply will fall by a further 2.9 million b/d to 94.2 million b/d.
As analysts note, the key factor remains the fate of the US‑Iran talks. Any change in the situation could lead to a sharp movement in prices in one direction or the other. For now, the market is frozen in anticipation — as is the diplomatic process itself.
