BRASÍLIA (Realist English). It’s very hot in Brazil right now. And this isn’t about the sweltering tropical weather that makes itself felt even during Brazil’s winter.
Since the country is in the Southern Hemisphere, its rather arbitrary winter lasts from June to August. But the level of political confrontation, the battle of compromising material, and the fierce information war ahead of the presidential elections are clearly off the charts.
The situation is analysed for Realist English by Tatiana Poloskova, a Doctor of Political Science and a First‑Class State Counsellor of the Russian Federation.
In any case, whether the popular left‑wing politician Lula will win this time cannot be answered unequivocally. His supporters claim that Lula “won’t give up power.” But there have already been precedents when he did give up power and even spent time in prison. So, what is happening in the land of “fazendas”?
Ratings: the race intensifies
The presidential elections are scheduled for October 2026, but the current president is no longer the undisputed favourite. The candidates’ ratings are constantly changing. Experts note a clear narrowing of the gap between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) — the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
While at the end of 2025 Lula had a significant lead, by spring and summer 2026, according to Datafolha (22–23 July), this gap had narrowed considerably. In a projected second‑round scenario, Lula led Flávio by just 4 percentage points. According to Datafolha data for April 2026, Flávio actually surpassed Lula in the second‑round forecast: 46% versus 45%. And according to the AtlasIntel/Bloomberg forecast, Flávio in March 2026 for the first time gained a numerical advantage in a second‑round scenario: 47.6% versus 46.6% for Lula (with about 5.8% of respondents still undecided).
Presidential approval: alarming signals
There is another important aspect in public opinion measurements — approval or disapproval of the president’s performance. For example, a Paraná Pesquisas poll showed Lula’s approval at about 40%, with disapproval at approximately 50.9%. In one Datafolha poll, 48% of voters said they would never vote for Lula, while 46% said the same for Flávio.
Third candidates: the ‘dark horse’
Besides Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, there are other candidates in the presidential race — they are currently gathering a smaller share of the vote, but for some voters they could become an important alternative. The proverbial “dark horse” that unexpectedly surges ahead. Among them is Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans party). The current governor of São Paulo. In polls, he is consistently seen as a contender for the votes of moderates and part of the right‑leaning electorate.
The geopolitical backdrop: US vs. China
And, of course, Washington’s political influence on the election campaign is very noticeable. As La Nacion writes, this is about the “global confrontation between the US and China,” whose mouthpiece has become the public conflict between “Trump’s friend” Argentine President Milei and Lula. The conflict between Milei and Lula has gone beyond personal insults and has become a reflection of US‑China rivalry in Latin America, La Nacion notes. “The Argentine leader, whose rating is falling, is counting on Trump’s help and the creation of an anti‑China bloc, but Brazil does not intend to submit to the American course,” emphasises analyst Carlos Pagni.
However, there are many Trump supporters in Brazil and opponents of rapprochement with China, so we agree with the viewpoint expressed by La Nacion that “lately in Latin America, international ties no longer depend on the common interests of a given country. More often they are influenced by certain groups within a state that unite, contradict or argue with similar or different groups in another country. ‘Party families’ are being formed that become subjects of foreign policy relations.”
Trump through Milei against Lula
In other words, Trump is realising his ambitions and claims to regain leadership in Brazil through the figure of Milei. China, which has invested billions of dollars in investment projects in Brazil, appears not to have been prepared for this scenario and is now feverishly seeking ways to maintain its presence in Brazil. Beijing suddenly remembered that China had not had serious training of specialists for work in Latin America for a long time. Even in specialised analytical structures, only 30 per cent speak Spanish or Portuguese.
China’s understanding of the situation in this region is hindered, in our view, by excessive ideologisation. Alas, slogans like “Homeland or death” are no longer as popular in the region as they were decades ago. Latin America has entered the age of pragmatism. And therefore the calls of Chinese colleagues “Let’s unite in the fight against the US” are far from universally understood.
Diplomatic war between Brazil and Argentina
Trump, of course, has been interfering in the Brazilian election process for several months now, although during Lula’s spring visit to the White House he swore he would not do so. For now, let us note: Milei’s aggressive attacks on Lula, which have made him Trump’s mouthpiece, brought the two countries to the brink of breaking diplomatic relations.
As Argentine media note, Brazil does not intend to escalate the conflict. The diplomatic mission in Buenos Aires is Brazil’s second most important in the world after Washington. The confrontation between the two countries began when Lula da Silva visited Joe Biden at the White House. At the time, Milei was running for president. Lula told Biden about the emergence of the “La Libertad Avanza” party on the political scene that democracy in Argentina was under threat. Now this confrontation has intensified.
As La Nacion commentators note, “a game is unfolding in the region devised by Milei’s advisor Santiago Caputo: to turn the Argentine president into a conduit for policies favourable to Donald Trump in Latin America. This position has been adopted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and is aimed at forming a pro‑Trump alliance that should include about ten countries. Among them are El Salvador, Chile, Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay, Ecuador, and now also Colombia and Argentina. These countries will support the US president in his ‘Donro Doctrine,’ which many call a copy of the Monroe Doctrine of the 1820s. It is based on the principle of ‘America for Americans.’ Milei serves this idea, trying to form such an alliance, which clearly contradicts China’s interests.”
What Trump expects if the right comes to power in Brazil
The Brazilian government states that by supporting Trump, Bolsonaro has already promised to conclude deals related to the intensification of international tension between the US and China. Among other things, Bolsonaro is also offering Trump, like Lula, rare earth metals, which have become a subject of contention in the mining industry, as they constitute the main raw material for the technology industry.
Bolsonaro is also proposing an extremely important and, if implemented, highly damaging measure for Brazil: zero tariffs on ethanol. Ethanol production supplies the entire Brazilian automotive market, so such a measure would be a serious test for the country’s economy. And much more.
And most importantly, Bolsonaro Jr. is offering Trump the same thing as Argentina: a clearly anti‑China orientation in its trade and overall foreign policy. It should not be forgotten that Brazil is a member of BRICS along with Russia, India and South Africa.
The geopolitical game on the continent
Thus, a geopolitical game is unfolding in which the conflict between China and the US is projected onto South America, with Lula and Milei as the opposing sides. The organisational foundation of Trump’s “control” over Latin America will be the creation of a club of his supporters, where Milei is currently the main player.
So far, Trump has achieved the replacement of left‑wing presidents with right‑wing ones in a number of key Latin American countries, effectively ensured external governance of Venezuela, and, as Politico writes, is indeed planning to attack Cuba. But Cuba for Trump is just dessert. Brazil is undoubtedly the main course. And the fight to remove Lula from power will be tough and, it seems, without any unnecessary formalities.
Compromat against Lula: Milei and the Banco Master scandal
Meanwhile, Milei and the rest of the “support group” for Bolsonaro Jr. are actively promoting negative aspects that could cause real damage to Lula’s election campaign. Javier Milei, recalling the criminal case against Lula, publicly calls him a “thief and a corrupt politician.”
“Lula was convicted. He was in prison, so the fact that he was an inmate is true. He was released because of an administrative error, not because he is innocent. Therefore, he is a thief and a corrupt politician,” the Argentine leader said in an interview on the LN+ channel. Milei denigrates Lula for allegedly interfering in politics, “polluting everything around with the repulsive ideas of socialism,” etc.
Senator Wagner’s resignation: a blow to Lula
Besides the clashes with Milei, there are other facts that could cause serious reputational damage to Lula. For example, one of the members of his team, Senator Wagner, resigned. The reason for the resignation was the Federal Police’s “Compliance Zero” operation. On 18 June, investigators conducted 18 searches in three states, including addresses linked to the senator in Salvador and Brasília. The investigation suspects that Wagner may have received bribes, including a luxury apartment and transfers totalling about 3.5 million reais (over $1 million) for lobbying on behalf of Banco Master.
Senator Wagner is a member of the inner circle of founders of the Workers’ Party, was Minister of Defence and Chief of Staff under Dilma Rousseff, and their friendship with the president, according to journalists’ estimates, spans more than 40 years. This is the first time that the corruption scandal surrounding Banco Master has affected a politician so close to Lula.
As Telegram channels comment, until recently Lula da Silva’s election campaign used the fact that the case involves the son of his main opponent — Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. This gave the incumbent president a moral advantage: he could accuse the rival camp of dishonesty. Now that Lula’s own closest ally has been implicated in the same investigation, he has lost this trump card.
Lula between China and the US
Lula is now actively using the factor of US‑China confrontation in the region in his election campaign, stating that he wants Washington to treat the region as a partner rather than as a target. But a few months ago, Lula accused China of seeking to “occupy Brazil through investment.” And Beijing has not forgotten this. Now, since it has not been possible to reach an agreement with Trump on neutrality during the election campaign, Lula is appealing — albeit very gently — to China.
Who will ultimately win the fight for the presidency in Brazil is currently very difficult to predict. One thing is clear: it is the battle for Brazil that will become the decisive clash that will determine the future development of the region. And the main players on this battlefield are the US and China. Russia has not been able to restore, even partially, its former positions in Latin America, lost after the collapse of the USSR. And why that is — is a topic for a separate analytical article.
Tatiana Poloskova is a Doctor of Political Science and a First‑Class State Counsellor of the Russian Federation, writing exclusively for Realist English.
