ANKARA (Realist English). Ten months before parliamentary elections that, by all indications, will result in a change of power, the Turkish government has presented a new three‑year budget plan that merely confirms the failure of its economic policy.
On September 6, Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz was forced to admit that hopes for growth were illusory, and that inflation continues to destroy the economy. The GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been cut from 3.8% to 3.3%, while year‑end inflation has soared from 16% to 28.4% — and even that may not be the ceiling.
Three‑Year Fiasco: How Forecasts Failed
The new document, dubbed the “Medium‑Term Programme” (OVP), is yet another admission that Turkey’s economy is sliding into a protracted crisis. Instead of promised growth, the country gets a slowdown. Instead of taming inflation, a new surge.
| Indicator | Promised Forecast | Reality |
| GDP growth 2026 | 3.8% | 3.3% |
| GDP growth 2027 | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| Inflation (end‑2026) | 16 % | 28.4% |
At the same time, the government continues to make fantastic promises for 2029: 5% growth and 9% inflation. Given that previous forecasts failed spectacularly, these figures look like an insult to voters.
War as an Excuse, Incompetence as Reality
The authorities explain the forecast revision by citing the Iran war and global uncertainty. Yes, the war is a factor — but not the only one. Over a decade of Erdoğan’s rule, Turkey’s economy has deteriorated to such an extent that any external shock becomes a catastrophe.
Turkey’s central bank estimates the war’s contribution to inflation at 7 percentage points. However, this only confirms that the fundamental problems — a weak national currency, loss of investor confidence, capital flight — make the economy vulnerable to any external shock. The war merely exposed what years of irresponsible policy had already built.
Market Reaction: Trust Is Lost
Financial markets have long ceased to believe Turkish forecasts. Each new government plan is met with scepticism. Raising the inflation forecast to 28.4% was merely confirmation that the fight against price growth has been lost.
The government is betting on monetary tightening in 2026 to accelerate in 2027–2029. But this strategy is not new: similar promises have been made before, only to shatter against reality each time. The Turkish lira continues to fall, and inflation continues to accelerate.
Pre‑Election Cynicism: Lowering Expectations to Lie Later
Analysts do not hide their view: the new “Medium‑Term Programme” is a political document, not an economic one. The government is deliberately lowering forecasts so that if they are even partially met, it can present this as a “victory.”
The particular cynicism is that the authorities may include target figures for pensioners, civil servants and manufacturers in the programme — precisely the groups that will be voting. But these numbers, like everything else, will remain on paper.
Illusory Plans Instead of Real Solutions
Turkey’s new programme is not an economic rescue plan but an attempt to hold on to power at any cost. The downward revision of forecasts (from 4.3% to 4.2% growth and from 16% to 28.4% inflation) is an admission that the government has lost control of the situation.
But even after this fiasco, the authorities continue to promise 5% growth and single‑digit inflation by 2029. These figures have nothing to do with reality — they are needed only to keep in power those who have already brought the country to economic collapse.
It remains to wait for Turkish voters to realise that yet another set of promises is not worth the paper it is written on. Or perhaps they already have.
