TEHRAN (Realist English). Mutual missile strikes between Israel and Iran have once again pushed the Middle East to the brink of all‑out war. The escalation over the past weekend was the most serious violation of the fragile ceasefire established in April.
While Israeli aircraft strike Iranian territory, Tehran launches ballistic missiles at the Jewish state. Both Western and Iranian experts agree that the conflict is entering a dangerous phase in which each side risks being drawn into a protracted war of attrition.
Chronology of the Escalation
On the evening of June 7, Iranian forces carried out a massive missile barrage on Israeli territory. According to the IDF, several ballistic missile launches were recorded. Tehran said the strike was in response to Israeli army attacks on the southern suburbs of Beirut, where facilities of Iran‑backed Hezbollah are located.
As Israel’s ambassador to the US later reported, 11 ballistic missiles were launched. Israel’s air defense systems worked effectively: the army claims all incoming missiles were intercepted. Air raid sirens sounded in several areas of Israel, including Jerusalem. Schools across the country were closed, and restrictions were imposed on mass gatherings.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking at an emergency meeting of the security cabinet, declared that “Iran has made a big mistake” and promised retaliation.
On the morning of June 8, the Israeli Air Force struck targets in central and western Iran. Iranian state media reported explosions in Isfahan, Karaj, Tabriz and Tehran. Iranian authorities quickly closed the airspace over the capital, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said the attack used air‑launched cruise missiles.
Israel: Determination and “Red Line” Threats
In Tel Aviv, the incident is seen as direct confirmation that Iran’s missile programme is an existential threat. A senior Israeli military official had previously stated that “Israel cannot coexist with Iran’s ballistic missiles,” and officials have repeatedly stressed that Israel reserves the right to strike unilaterally if Tehran crosses “red lines” in missile technology development.
Analysts note that Israel sees this conflict as an opportunity to inflict irreversible damage on Iran’s military infrastructure. According to experts from Israel’s INSS, Israel’s actions are aimed not only at destroying specific targets but also at undermining the regime’s foundations – though in the long term such actions could backfire, consolidating Iranian society around the authorities.
Iran Ready for Any Scenario
Iran, for its part, demonstrates absolute readiness to continue the conflict. IRGC spokesman Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi said the armed forces are “better prepared than ever” and “any return of the enemy to the battlefield will be met with a different approach.”
As Farzin Nadimi, an expert at the Washington Institute, notes, Iran’s strategy of “cheap attrition” has worked: despite the high effectiveness of Israel’s air defence, the massive launch of thousands of ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones (an estimated 4,000 in the first weeks of the conflict alone) inflicts colossal economic and operational damage, forcing the adversary to bear huge defence costs.
Iranian leadership also notes that during the lull, it was able to regain access to most of its underground missile bases and strengthen its control over the Strait of Hormuz.
War of Attrition
Western analysts conclude that the current conflict is turning into a war that no one can win. Ali Vaez, director of the Iran programme at the International Crisis Group and one of the most cited specialists, believes that the US and Israel may win tactical battles but “could lose the war” because they do not understand the internal dynamics of Iranian society.
An analytical article in BusinessWorldOnline notes that for Iran, victory is survival, and it has already adapted to a protracted conflict, expanding it to other arenas – shipping lanes, energy markets and regional alliances – where Western vulnerabilities are obvious.
At the same time, Middle East military experts warn that the West underestimates Iran’s ability to wage unconventional warfare, where asymmetric responses (missile strikes on civilian infrastructure and air bases, as in the attack on Ramat David air base) can nullify Israel’s technological superiority.
