MOSCOW (Realist English). August 2026 has become a month of price reversals and accumulated imbalances for the Russian metals sector.
The ferrous metals market, which had shown steady growth since mid-summer, began to lose ground towards the end of August, while the non-ferrous metals sector continues to hold high price levels amid global shortages and a weakening dollar.
At the same time, the industry as a whole remains in a zone of uncertainty: demand is weak, production is declining, and hopes for a swift recovery remain just that – hopes.
Ferrous metals: price correction after the summer rally
The first half of August maintained positive momentum for the ferrous metals market. Between 31 July and 6 August, the consolidated price index for ferrous rolled metal trading in Russia’s Central Region rose by 11 points (+1.17%) . Prices increased across all product categories, with the largest growth recorded for channel steel — +2.76%.
The flat-rolled market also saw positive trends in the first half of August. Hot-rolled products rose in price both on the primary market and on the spot market, followed by stabilisation at a relatively high level. Even cold-rolled products, which had experienced a prolonged decline, showed some recovery, with prices rising. Demand for welded pipes remained fairly strong.
However, by the middle of the month the situation began to change. Between 13 and 20 August, the consolidated price index lost 2.3 points (-0.24%) . The decline affected five of the eight product categories tracked. The largest drop was recorded for angle steel — -2.52% , while galvanised flat products rose by 0.96%.
The key factor keeping prices high remains supply shortages. There is an acute shortage of structural steel on the primary market, and warehouse stocks are not increasing significantly. End consumers continue to purchase steel to cover current needs, accepting its high cost. As analysts note, “the situation with rebar is improving in this regard, but warehouse stocks are not increasing significantly.”
Production: steel is being made, but indicators are falling
According to the World Steel Association, Russia reduced steel production by 8.4% in the first half of 2026 compared to the previous year – to 32.1 million tonnes, returning to fifth place among metal-producing countries. In June 2026, Russia produced 5.6 million tonnes of steel – 3.4% less than in the same month last year.
At the same time, Rosstat data for June 2026 paints a somewhat different picture: production of all types of steel amounted to 6 million tonnes, which is 5.3% higher than the result for June 2025. At the same time, pig iron production fell by 2.6% in June, while ferrous rolled product output rose by 0.4%. The pipe industry is showing mixed dynamics: seamless pipe production fell by 12.8%, while casing pipe production rose by 6.6% and tubing production by 13.7%.
Severstal recorded the first signs of market stabilisation in the second quarter of 2026. Steel production in the second quarter reached 2.79 million tonnes, and the company’s production capacity is almost fully utilised. However, financial indicators remain under pressure: the company decided not to pay dividends for the reporting period.
Non-ferrous metals: aluminium and copper hold their ground
The non-ferrous metals market looks more stable. Global non-ferrous metal prices continued to rise in August 2026 amid global shortages and a weakening dollar.
Rusal’s weighted average aluminium sales price rose by 23.6% compared to the same period last year, reaching an average of **$3,227 per tonne**. At the same time, the weighted average premium to the LME aluminium price fell by 43.5% – to $52 per tonne.
Copper on the London Metal Exchange is holding above $14,000 per tonne amid dollar weakness and expectations of US tariffs on metal imports. Russian aluminium stocks on the LME, according to analysts, although down, still stand at 95%.
According to the Ministry of Economic Development’s calculations, non-ferrous metal prices continued to rise in August: aluminium rose by 2.5%, nickel by 1.8%. In annual terms, non-ferrous metals rose by 26.1%.
Factors and risks: domestic demand and sanctions pressure
Despite price stability, the industry faces systemic challenges.
Demand remains weak. As Severstal notes, the rate of decline in demand for metal products has slowed compared to the beginning of the year, but it is too early to talk about a recovery. Capacity utilisation in the ferrous metals industry fell to 64% in the first quarter of 2026 amid falling demand in key consuming industries.
Export opportunities are limited. Russian steelmakers are losing ground in foreign markets. As experts note, “the only positive external factor for steelmakers has been the rise in steel prices in July.” At the same time, prices for steel semi-finished products (slabs and hot-rolled coil) fell to multi-month lows in August, while billet prices fell to two-year lows.
Sanctions pressure and the rouble exchange rate. The strengthening rouble is holding back the recovery of the Russian metals market, reducing export competitiveness.
Autumn decline looks inevitable
Analysts agree that the current rise in long product prices has its limits. “In the second half of August and in September, the likelihood of a fall is low. However, the closer we get to the end of the construction season, the more tension will grow. An autumn decline looks inevitable, but before it begins, steelmakers and distributors will have time to make a little more money.”
Some pipe producers have already started lowering quotes, trying to sell accumulated volumes before the seasonal decline expected in October. Steel companies that announced a small increase for coil in September may de facto abandon it. However, in the coated flat products sector, expectations for the next month are more favourable – a continued rise in galvanised and painted products is likely.
Severstal CEO Alexander Shevelev expressed cautious optimism, noting that “the situation in the Russian metals industry is gradually beginning to improve.” But even under an optimistic scenario, a sustainable recovery of the industry will require not only a revival of domestic demand but also the resolution of systemic problems – from sanctions restrictions to low capacity utilisation.
