DUBAI (Realist English). Global oil prices have declined following a brief spike triggered by Iran’s announcement that it was closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent and WTI corrected amid the continuation of “shadow” shipping, a record drop in US inventories, and weak demand from China. European gas prices rose to three-week highs due to the lowest gas storage levels in years.
Oil Prices: A Dip After Threats
During trading on June 11, 2026, oil prices showed increased volatility. Brent crude traded in the range of $92–94 per barrel, approximately 1.2% below the peak values at the start of the week. WTI traded near $89–90 per barrel, losing about 1% on the day.
The market reacted to news of a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz with a brief spike of more than $2 per barrel, followed by a correction. Analysts warn that if current escalation persists, the average Brent price in June–July could reach $105 per barrel.
The Strait of Hormuz: Formally Closed, but Not for Everyone
On June 10, Iran’s supreme military command announced the complete closure of the strategic waterway to all types of vessels. However, according to tracking companies, “grey” oil flows continue:
- In the first ten days of June, at least 1.8 million barrels per day passed through the strait — 50% more than in May (data from Vortexa).
- US President Donald Trump claimed that US Navy military convoys had ensured the passage of more than 100 million barrels of oil and over 200 commercial vessels.
- Three LNG tankers left the strait and headed for Asia.
Thus, the formal blockade did not lead to a complete halt in shipping, which limited panic-driven price increases.
Geopolitical Background: Strikes and Diplomacy
The military escalation between the US and Iran continued for a second day. The Pentagon is striking Iranian military targets, acting in “self-defence”. Iran, in turn, is threatening attacks on US bases in the region.
At the same time, officials confirm that diplomatic contacts have not been severed. Negotiations mediated by Pakistan and Qatar continue, which also helps contain the price shock.
US Inventories: A Record Drop
Despite the price correction, physical market tightness in the US is increasing:
- Commercial crude oil inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels for the week (forecast: -4 million barrels).
- Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stocks fell by 15 million barrels for the week — the fastest rate since the 1980s.
- OPEC production fell to its lowest level in 20 years.
Natural Gas: Europe Heading into Winter with Risks
The European gas market reacted to the strait blockade with a price increase:
- TTF (Netherlands) rose to €49–50 per MWh — a three-week high.
- Gas storage levels in Europe are below 43%, the worst figure since 2016 (a year ago it was 51%).
- Europe remains vulnerable to disruptions in LNG supplies, which largely pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
US Henry Hub gas prices remain under pressure at around $3.1 per MMBtu due to mild weather and record production in the Permian Basin, insulating the US market from the Middle East crisis.
Over the past 24 hours, the global energy market has shown paradoxical resilience: the formal closure of the Strait of Hormuz did not lead to a supply collapse, while the maintenance of a diplomatic channel and weak demand from China contained panic.
However, the record drop in US inventories and Europe’s worst preparations for winter in eight years maintain a high risk of a new price spike in the event of a real closure of the strait or a breakdown in negotiations.
