LONDON (Realist English). On September 21, bitcoin rose to an eight-month high of $87,381, after which it retreated over four trading days to around $83,000, shedding most of the gains from the start of the week. The immediate trigger for the pullback was stronger-than-expected US business activity data, which pushed Treasury yields even higher and reversed bitcoin’s rise above $87,000.
ETF Demand Strong, But Momentum Fading
US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for seven consecutive trading days from September 17 to 25, totaling about $2.98 billion. On September 21 alone, single-day inflows approached $1 billion — the highest since October 2025.
This influx returned the cumulative flow since the start of 2026 to positive territory — about $887 million, significantly improving from minus $56.9 billion on July 13.
BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) was the main beneficiary, attracting about $1.35 billion over six days of inflows — nearly half the total.
However, the pace of inflows is rapidly fading. After a peak of $999 million on Monday, it fell to $714.75 million on Tuesday, $347 million on Wednesday, and only $191 million on Thursday — about 81% below the level at the start of the week. The decline in daily ETF inflows coincided with weakening momentum in the spot market.
Macroeconomic Pressure: A Double Blow from Bond Yields and Oil
The key driver of bitcoin’s pullback is the macroeconomic environment. The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes rose to about 5.2% — the highest since 2007; the yield on 30-year bonds reached 5.444% — the highest since 2004. The 5-year note auction was weak: the yield hit its highest since June 2006, and the bid-to-cover ratio fell to its lowest since December 2018.
Rising long-term bond yields directly increase the opportunity cost of holding bitcoin and other non-yielding assets. A Bitfinex Alpha report notes that with the Fed maintaining a hawkish stance and rates at multi-decade highs, “investors can obtain attractive yields in the traditional fixed-income market,” which reduces demand for risk assets.
Meanwhile, Brent rose 3.86% to $103.08 per barrel on September 23, about 42.2% above the pre-war level in February. High oil prices intensify inflationary pressure and strengthen expectations of further Fed tightening. According to market pricing on September 24, the probability of another rate hike in October approached 70%, versus about 50% a week earlier.
Technical Picture: Key Support Levels Under Threat
After a roughly 40% rebound from the August low of about $76,000, bitcoin’s technical indicators show signs of weakening momentum. The daily RSI has retreated from high levels to 61, but the MACD is signaling divergence — price is rising while momentum is not following.
The key support zone is at $83,000–$83,500. Technical analysts note that as long as bitcoin holds the $82,900–$83,000 area, the short-term uptrend remains intact and there is room to move toward $88,600–$92,200; a sustained drop below this zone could open the way for a deeper correction — the next support is at $81,600, then at the 50-week moving average around $78,700.
On the upside, $87,000 forms the first notable resistance, a break of which would strengthen expectations for continued growth in October. With a further breakthrough, the next major resistance is around $100,000, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is also located.
Profit-Taking Risk Rising
On-chain data reveals another alarming signal. On September 26, market unrealized profit reached 33% — the highest since December 2024. On the same day, about 25,700 BTC were spent in profit — a record single-day profit-taking volume in 2026, exceeding $2.1 billion at current prices.
CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno notes that “this combination typically heralds a weakening of bullish momentum,” increasing the risk of a pullback after holders take profits.
However, Glassnode data show that profit-taking in this cycle is relatively restrained. The level of net realized profit corresponds only to the level of late 2023 and is significantly below the large-scale sell-offs of previous euphoria phases; short-term holders have returned to profit, but realized gains remain moderate, indicating gradual distribution rather than panic exit.
Structural Support Remains
Despite significant short-term pressure, a number of structural factors support bitcoin. Exchange reserves remain at multi-year lows: Binance reserves fell from about 705,000 to 685,000 BTC over four days, with a single-day outflow exceeding 13,800 BTC — the highest since 2023. Long-term holders continue to accumulate: wallets with 100–1,000 BTC have collectively increased positions by about 113,950 BTC since July 15.
Wintermute in its May analysis noted that multi-year lows in exchange reserves, continued accumulation by long-term holders, and the advancement of the CLARITY bill in Congress form structural counterfactors against short-term bearish arguments. But the institution simultaneously warned: “when leverage becomes the marginal buyer, liquidations often come quickly.”
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin is caught between macroeconomic headwinds and structural support. ETF inflows provide the market with a real demand base: the weekly volume of $2.98 billion was the highest since October last year, and BlackRock’s IBIT accumulated nearly half, indicating continued institutional interest. However, the rapid fading of inflow speed indicates that macroeconomic pressure is restraining the pace of additional capital.
The jump in long-term Treasury yields is the key variable. The break of the 10-year yield above 5% is not just a technical threshold, but a signal that risk-free assets offer real yields unseen in years, creating persistent pressure on the valuation of bitcoin, which does not generate cash flow. High oil prices reinforce this logic through the inflation channel, raising rate expectations.
October will be a key test. Historical seasonality favors growth — 10 of the last 13 Octobers closed in positive territory. But the example of October 2025 reminds us: bitcoin, having set a record of $126,000, closed the month down about 4%. Holding support at $83,000 will determine whether bitcoin continues toward the $100,000 target or enters a deeper correction.
