WASHINGTON (Realist English). The Republican Party of the United States is facing a systemic crisis in two Senate races that only a few months ago were considered key to retaining the majority.
North Carolina and Georgia — states that Donald Trump won in three and two presidential elections respectively — are now viewed by party leadership as territories likely to be conceded to the Democrats.
This admission was made at closed meetings of Republican senators and in reports by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC).
The Essence of the Problem: NRSC Withdraws Funding from Two States
At a closed meeting on Wednesday, NRSC Chairman Senator Tim Scott presented Republican senators with an updated map of priority spending. The list included Maine, Ohio, Michigan, Alaska, Texas, and New Hampshire. North Carolina and Georgia were absent from this list. This became the clearest signal that the party has de facto deprioritized the two races previously considered critical for retaining the majority.
In North Carolina, Republican candidate Michael Whatley, former head of the Republican National Committee, is consistently trailing Democrat Roy Cooper, a former governor of the state. Polls give Cooper a lead of five or more percentage points, and one Carolina Journal poll showed a 15-point gap (49% to 34%).
Whatley called that poll “garbage” and stated that “all other polls show the gap narrowing.” However, even Republican strategists privately admit: “I don’t know what path there is for Michael. Unless Cooper completely stumbles.”
In Georgia, Congressman Mike Collins is trying to unseat Democratic Senator John Ossoff. Collins’s campaign sent allies a memorandum requesting additional help, arguing that “one in ten voters is still undecided” — mostly people who supported Trump in 2024 but are not yet ready to vote for Collins. The Cook Political Report shifted the rating of the Georgia race from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic.”
Party Reaction: Denial and Cash Infusions
Officially, Republican leadership denies conceding ground. Tim Scott called reports of deprioritization “nonsense” and said he would continue working with both candidates. NRSC spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez called the Politico publication “completely fabricated” and demanded its retraction.
However, actions speak louder than words. One Republican super PAC, Old North Action, has cut its ad reservations in North Carolina by about a third. The party is forced to spend colossal sums to defend even deeply “red” states: in Texas, investments exceeded $100 million.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune formulated the defensive logic bluntly: “We’re building a big wall around all our candidates. There are headwinds we’re facing in races across the country.”
Trump and Vice President JD Vance tried to personally turn the situation around: both recently visited North Carolina as part of their first campaign trips after the party convention. Thune held a fundraiser for Collins in Atlanta together with Georgia Governor Brian Kemp.
Broader Context: The Map Is Collapsing Beyond Two States
Republican problems are not limited to North Carolina and Georgia. The Cook Political Report simultaneously shifted the ratings of three races in favor of Democrats: Georgia became “likely Democrat,” Kansas — “leans Republican” (instead of “likely Republican”), and South Carolina — “likely Republican” (instead of “solid Republican”).
In Kansas, pastor Adam Hamilton, running for the first time, has challenged Republican Senator Roger Marshall. Trump called Hamilton a “radical left lunatic,” and Vance personally traveled to Kansas to support Marshall. Hamilton himself reacted this way: “My first thought was: wow, they must really be scared. They sent the second most powerful person in the country to Olathe, Kansas, to attack me.”
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico is ahead of Republican Ken Paxton: the latest Marist poll gave Talarico 50% against Paxton’s 44%, with a 20-point gap among independent voters. Paxton, whom Trump actively supports, himself admitted on Fox News: “I don’t think we can hold the majority if we don’t hold Texas. We need help!”
In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek is running even with Republican Ashley Hinson — in a state Trump won with 56% of the vote.
Tactical Retreat or Systemic Shift?
Within the Republican camp there is no unity in assessing what is happening. Formally, the NRSC continues to state that the fight for both states is not over, and official party representatives accuse the media of fabricating the narrative of conceding ground. However, closed meetings and the redistribution of money point to the opposite: the party is moving to defense in traditionally Republican states instead of going on the offensive in battlegrounds.
Mood within the party reflects growing frustration. Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana, usually loyal to party leadership, publicly criticized the priorities: “I’ve been chasing my friend Senator Thune like he stole Thanksgiving ever since we passed the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ to do more on the cost of living, because we didn’t do a damn thing. And it’s biting us in the ass right now.”
According to him, ordinary Americans “don’t worry about whether football coaches are happy… they worry about the cost of living.”
The Republican Party is entering the final phase of the midterm elections with a map that is collapsing faster than anyone expected. North Carolina and Georgia are not just two states. They are indicators of a deeper shift: economic fatigue, record diesel prices, an unpopular Iran war, and Trump’s falling approval rating (32–33%) are turning even reliable Republican territories into risk zones.
The NRSC is pulling money from two key races not because it has given up, but because it is forced to defend what can still be defended.
Will Republicans lose North Carolina and Georgia? Polls and party decisions say they most likely will. How many more “red” states will follow?
