DUBAI (Realist English). Brent crude oil prices exceeded $96 per barrel during trading on July 23, reaching a six‑week high following Houthi attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and a twelfth consecutive night of US airstrikes on Iran.
By 19:41 UAE time, Brent was trading at $96.27 per barrel (+2.34%), while US WTI rose to $88.59. The price has surged more than 30% over the past month, and analysts are already predicting a return to triple‑digit levels if the escalation continues.
Attack on Two Saudi Tankers: A New Front in the Red Sea
On the morning of July 23, Iran‑backed Yemeni Houthis announced a “military operation” against two Saudi oil tankers — Encelia and Layla. According to the militants, the vessels were struck with missiles and drones for violating the blockade imposed by the group against Saudi ports.
The Saudi state agency SPA confirmed that the Saudi‑flagged tanker Encelia was hit in the Red Sea, causing a fire in its bow section. All crew members are safe. Information regarding the attack on the second tanker, Layla, has not yet been confirmed.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that an unknown projectile struck a commercial vessel off the coast of Saudi Arabia, approximately 70 nautical miles southwest of Al‑Shuqaiq.
According to Bloomberg vessel‑tracking data, after the attack the Encelia transmitted a “not under command” signal, indicating possible loss of control due to damage. The Layla continued moving under its own power.
Bab el‑Mandeb Blockade: A Second Oil Chokepoint
The attacks on the tankers were the first strikes on oil vessels directly in the Red Sea since the escalation began. Earlier, on July 20, the Houthis declared a “naval blockade” of Saudi Arabia, threatening to attack any vessels heading to Saudi ports or carrying Saudi oil.
The threat of closing the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait — the southern entrance to the Red Sea — creates a second critical chokepoint for global oil supplies, alongside the virtually paralysed Strait of Hormuz.
Bab el‑Mandeb is the alternative route that Saudi Arabia had been actively using to bypass Hormuz, delivering oil to its Red Sea port of Yanbu.
According to Reuters, five tankers have already changed course in the Red Sea to avoid the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait, and three vessels carrying Saudi oil for China and India turned back on Tuesday. Two Chinese supertankers with 4 million barrels of Saudi oil on board were still heading toward the strait on Thursday.
Twelve Nights of Bombings and a “Closed” Strait of Hormuz
Alongside the Red Sea attacks, the US carried out a twelfth consecutive night of airstrikes on Iranian targets. President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iranian bridges and power plants “every time Iran fires on a vessel” in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said the Strait of Hormuz is under full Iranian control and is “completely closed” to shipping without coordination with Tehran.
Iranian military officials also said the southern route through the strait has been mined, and one of three tankers attempting to pass caught fire after an explosion.
Market Reaction and Forecasts
Analysts have called the Red Sea attack a “significant escalation” that could further tighten the oil market. As ANZ Group Holdings senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes noted: “If this route is disrupted, oil market tightness will only increase.”
The threat of closing Bab el‑Mandeb could take up to 5 million barrels per day of oil supplies off the market, including the key route used by Gulf producers to bypass Hormuz. Brent has already risen 30% in a month, and some analysts see the potential for a return to $100 per barrel if the escalation persists.
The Houthis have opened a second front in a conflict that already encompasses the Strait of Hormuz, the Black Sea, and now the Red Sea. As The Jerusalem Post notes, the blockade of Bab el‑Mandeb threatens to “significantly expand the war and strain US military resources.”
According to Bloomberg, Washington and Tehran show no readiness for peace talks, raising the likelihood of a protracted conflict. The question is whether the global economy can withstand the simultaneous closure of two key oil arteries — and when oil will cross $100.
