NEW YORK (Realist English). The Zero Carbon Analytics study adds weight to a growing body of scientific work showing how extreme weather is reshaping global inflation. If weather-driven price spikes were once seen as temporary shocks, they are now becoming an increasingly persistent factor.
According to the report, prepared under the leadership of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, extreme weather events directly cause short-term spikes in food prices worldwide. Among the hardest-hit categories are potatoes, rice, onions, lettuce and fruit.
Notable Examples from 2022–2026
The report cites specific cases linking weather anomalies to price increases:
- Potatoes in the UK rose 22% over 13 months to February 2024 after extreme winter rains.
- Vegetable prices in California and Arizona surged 80% year-on-year in November 2022 after severe drought.
- Ethiopia saw food prices rise 40% in March 2023 following the previous year’s drought.
- Cocoa — prices more than tripled over the year to April 2024 after unprecedented temperatures in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana combined with prolonged drought.
As Bloomberg notes, climate inflation affects not only exotic goods but also staple products: from seaweed to beef and from tomatoes to corn.
Food Inflation Returns: FAO Index at Three-Year High
Data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) confirm the alarming trend. In August 2026, the FAO Food Price Index reached 133.3 points — its highest level since November 2022. Growth was recorded across all major categories: cereals, vegetable oils, sugar, meat and dairy products.
| Category | Dynamics (August 2026) |
| FAO Index (overall) | 133.3 points (highest since November 2022) |
| Cereals | +2.2% m/m (highest since May 2024) |
| Vegetable oils | +0.6% m/m (highest since June 2022) |
| Sugar | +11.9% m/m (highest since June 2025) |
| Meat and dairy | Growth |
FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero described the situation bluntly: “The August rise in world food prices is a warning that the risk premium is returning to food markets: climate shocks, geopolitical tensions and disrupted trade logistics are converging to tighten supply expectations.”
Climate and Conflict: A Double Blow
Beyond climate factors, pressure on food markets is intensifying from geopolitical upheaval. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran conflict has driven up prices for energy and fertilizers — key agricultural inputs.
According to the World Bank, fertilizer prices, especially urea and phosphates, have reached their highest levels since 2022. This directly increases the cost of food production and, in the long term, may force farmers to reduce fertilizer use, leading to lower yields and further price increases.
Military operations in the Black Sea are also restricting grain exports from Russia and Ukraine, which account for nearly 30% of global wheat exports and more than 10% of corn.
El Niño: A New Threat to Rice and Palm Oil
An additional risk factor is the strengthening El Niño. According to NOAA estimates, the probability that the phenomenon will reach very high intensity by November–December is approaching two-thirds.
For agricultural markets, this means potential drought in Southeast Asia, Australia, northern Brazil, southern Africa and South Asia — key regions for cereal, sugarcane and oilseed production. Rice is of particular concern: India, Vietnam and Thailand are among the world’s largest exporters, and reduced harvests in these countries could quickly impact international prices.
Indonesia and Malaysia, which supply about 85% of the world’s palm oil, are also at risk. Goldman Sachs suggests that under an adverse scenario, food commodity prices could rise by more than 15%.
Forecasts: 11.6% in 2026 and Another 4.8% in 2027
Analysts expect further increases. According to a report by credit insurer Atradius, global food prices will rise by 11.6% in 2026 and another 4.8% in 2027.
“From farm margins to supermarket shelves, the impact of the Gulf conflict is felt throughout the food production chain,” the report notes. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up energy and fertilizer prices, directly affecting global production and food prices.
Oxford Economics analysts estimate global food price growth at 11.8% in 2026 and another 4.8% in 2027. Cereals, vegetables, fruits and dairy products will face the greatest pressure. Consumers will feel the increase in fresh products as early as October–November 2026, while for processed goods the price peak will come in February–May 2027.
Consequences for Consumers and the Economy
Rising food prices are already forcing consumers to change behavior. According to Atradius, buyers are shifting to cheaper brands, making more use of promotions and favoring private-label store brands. “This accelerates a trend we were already seeing. Even before the current price spikes, consumers in the US and Europe had become more price-sensitive about food,” noted Sharon Benfer, senior underwriter at Atradius.
For developing markets, the consequences are more severe: the share of food in the consumer basket there reaches 40%, compared to about 10% in developed economies, amplifying inflationary pressure on households.
Open Questions
Will the global food system be able to adapt to a new reality in which climate shocks cease to be temporary and become a permanent inflation factor? Will farmers be able to maintain yields amid rising fertilizer and energy prices, or will food security be threatened in the most vulnerable regions?
And most importantly — will central banks, already facing inflationary pressure from high energy prices, take climate risks into account in their monetary policy, or will food inflation remain a “blind spot” for regulators? Answers to these questions will emerge in the coming months — as El Niño develops, new FAO data is published, and global markets adapt to a changing climate.
