TEL AVIV (Realist English). On October 18, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented a new “national security doctrine” which, according to analysts, marks a shift from a strategy of deterrence and retaliatory strikes to a strategy of preemptive attacks.
The document, published a week and a half before the parliamentary elections on October 27, directly indicates Israel’s readiness to act against Iran’s nuclear facilities even without the support or prior coordination with Washington.
Netanyahu’s statements are not just pre-election rhetoric. Back in June 2026, he publicly called for “breaking free from dependence” on American weapons and creating an independent defense-industrial complex. However, the reality behind these ambitions is far more complex than campaign slogans.
Military aspect: the “Achilles heel” of the Air Force
The Israeli Air Force is considered one of the most capable in the world, but its material base is entirely dependent on the United States. The entire fleet of IDF combat aircraft consists of American machines: 75 F-15 fighters, 196 F-16s, and 39 stealthy F-35s. All attack and transport helicopter aviation, as well as the fleet of aerial refueling aircraft (critical for strikes on Iran), are also American-made.
The key problem is not the aircraft themselves but their maintenance. The US retains a “practically monopoly” on the supply of spare parts, software updates, combat data files, and major overhauls for the F-35, F-15, and F-16 platforms.
Operational data from the F-35I is routed through servers of Lockheed Martin and the US government, and combat mission files are produced at a laboratory at Eglin Air Force Base. As analysts note, Israel “could not operate the F-35I sovereignly even if it wanted to.”
The situation with munitions is similar. Although Israel produces precision bombs (SPICE, Rampage), it still depends on American JDAM kits and GBU-39 small-diameter bombs. In 2025, Israel was unable to independently strike Iran’s most deeply buried nuclear facilities because it lacked heavy penetrating munitions and was forced to rely on American support.
Air defense: a joint product, not “purely Israeli”
The Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow are often presented as proof of Israeli technological independence. However, as Egyptian General Wael Rabi noted, these systems “are not purely Israeli-produced” but are the result of cooperation with the US, including joint tests in the Nevada desert.
The Iron Dome is produced jointly with the American company RTX (Raytheon), and American legislators have allocated more than $3 billion for it beyond the baseline military aid. The Tamir and Stunner interceptors either use critical American components or are manufactured on US soil. During peak escalations, the US directly deployed its own Patriot and THAAD batteries to reinforce Israeli air defense.
Economic aspect: $1 trillion as an argument
From an economic standpoint, Netanyahu’s arguments look stronger. Israel’s economy is approaching the $1 trillion mark, and the prime minister has repeatedly stated that the country can independently finance its defense sector, beginning a transition period “as early as next year” with a ten-year horizon. American aid of about $3.8 billion per year is theoretically replaceable by increasing its own defense spending.
However, even after a complete cessation of direct aid (which, according to some estimates, will not happen before 2038), the US will retain leverage through the “accompaniment” of American platforms — logistics, modernization, spare parts, and training. Israel’s defense industry, while one of the most advanced in the world, has historically developed within a technological and industrial partnership with the US, not in isolation from it.
Diplomatic aspect: isolation and the “strategic umbrella”
Netanyahu’s doctrine emerged against the backdrop of growing international isolation of Israel. A number of European countries, including France, Canada, Spain, and the Netherlands, have imposed or are discussing arms embargoes and sanctions. More than 60 humanitarian organizations have called on the EU to suspend its association agreement with Israel. In response, Israel’s Defense Ministry stopped purchasing weapons from France, reorienting toward domestic production and “friendly countries.”
However, US diplomatic protection remains irreplaceable. For decades, Washington has used its veto power in the UN Security Council to block resolutions that could lead to isolation or sanctions against Israel.
Analysts emphasize that the US is not just an ally but “a key element of Israel’s own deterrence system”: Israel’s adversaries consider not only its military power but also the likelihood of American political or military intervention in the event of an existential threat.
The question “is Israel strong enough to act alone” does not have a simple answer. Tactically — yes, Israel is capable of striking targets in the region, as it has done in recent wars. Strategically — no, because its military machine, from fighters to interceptors, is deeply embedded in the American ecosystem, and its diplomatic protection from international pressure rests on the American veto.
Netanyahu’s doctrine and his rhetoric of “independence” are not a plan to break with the US but an attempt to reformat the relationship from a “patron–client” model to a model of “equal partners,” preserving access to American technologies while gaining more freedom of action for unilateral steps.
However, structural dependence on American spare parts, software, and munitions means that even with zero direct aid, Washington will retain leverage over Israeli decisions for decades to come.
Full military autonomy for Israel is not a matter of a few years or even a decade; it is a question of changing the paradigm of the global defense industry, which even for the US itself is based on complex international supply chains.
