MOSCOW (Realist English). July 2026 became a month of unexpected oil abundance for the Russian budget. According to Reuters estimates, federal revenues from oil and gas sales grew by 60% compared to July 2025.
The main reason was a sharp surge in global oil prices amid the war in the Persian Gulf and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
However, despite the impressive monthly growth, cumulative oil and gas revenues since the start of the year, according to preliminary estimates, may be 11% lower than last year’s level.
Monthly Figures: 147.3 Billion in Additional Revenues
According to Russia’s Finance Ministry, additional oil and gas revenues of the federal budget (above‑baseline export proceeds) in July 2026 are forecast at 147.3 billion rubles.
At the same time, in June, the deviation of actual oil and gas revenues from the plan amounted to minus 24.1 billion rubles.
The total amount of funds that the Finance Ministry will allocate for the purchase of foreign currency and gold under the budget rule from July 7 to August 6 will amount to 123.2 billion rubles — almost half of June’s figures (in June, the daily purchase volume was 9.9 billion rubles, in July — 5.4 billion).
| Indicator | Value |
| Additional oil and gas revenues (July) | 147.3 billion rubles |
| Revenue growth year‑on‑year | 60 % |
| Currency and gold purchases (July 7 – Aug 6) | 123.2 billion rubles |
| Daily purchase volume (July) | 5.4 billion rubles |
| Daily purchase volume (June) | 9.9 billion rubles |
Why Revenues Grew: Two Key Factors
1. Rising global oil prices. Brent crude approached $100 per barrel in July. Price growth is being driven by Yemeni Houthi actions against tankers in the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait, as well as transportation problems through the Strait of Hormuz due to the US‑Iran war.
2. Increase in the mineral extraction tax (MET). Revenue growth is also linked to a significant increase in MET receipts based on the results of the second quarter of 2026.
2026 Budget Plans
Russia’s federal budget for 2026 provides for oil and gas revenues of 8.92 trillion rubles ($113.7 billion) , with total budget revenues of 40.283 trillion rubles.
For comparison: in 2025, federal oil and gas revenues fell by 24% to 8.48 trillion rubles, the lowest figure since 2020.
In the first half of 2026, oil and gas revenues fell by 22.7% year‑on‑year to 3.661 trillion rubles. The July surge can only partially compensate for this shortfall.
Expert Estimates and Forecasts
Analysts note the contradictory dynamics: record monthly growth coexists with a year‑on‑year shortfall against planned targets. According to Reuters, oil and gas tax revenues for the January–July period will likely shrink by 11% compared to the same period in 2025 — to 4.9 trillion rubles.
Official Finance Ministry data on July oil and gas revenues are due to be published on August 5.
The future trajectory of oil and gas revenues will depend on the development of the conflict in the Persian Gulf and oil prices. On July 23, the EU’s 21st sanctions package against Russia came into force, aimed at limiting revenues to the Russian budget from oil sales. However, for now, market conditions are working in Moscow’s favour.
