SANAA (Realist English). On September 10, Houthi forces entered the port city of Mokha in Taiz province after several hours of intense fighting, forcing government troops to retreat south towards the Zubab area, located between Mokha and the Bab‑el‑Mandeb Strait.
According to military sources, the Houthis also captured Zubair Island in the southern Red Sea after missile strikes and an amphibious assault using boats.
Mokha is located approximately 70 kilometres north of the narrowest point of the Bab‑el‑Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and serves as a key route for oil, fuel and other goods between Asia and Europe via the Suez Canal.
Control over Mokha and further advance towards the strait significantly expand the Houthis’ positions on Yemen’s western coast at a time when disruptions at both key maritime nodes in the region are already raising concerns about global energy supplies.
Two Chokepoints — One Crisis
The capture of Mokha comes amid an unprecedented situation in which both strategic maritime corridors in the region — the Strait of Hormuz and Bab‑el‑Mandeb — are simultaneously experiencing serious disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about one‑fifth of global oil consumption and LNG trade passed before the conflict, has remained effectively closed since March 2, 2026.
With the outbreak of war in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia was forced to redirect a significant portion of its oil exports through its Red Sea terminals and the Bab‑el‑Mandeb Strait to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. This made the southern Red Sea corridor critically important — and simultaneously vulnerable to Houthi attacks, which in July declared a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia.
According to IMF PortWatch, in the first month after Hormuz closed, tanker trade through the strait collapsed to 22,800 tonnes from 1.97 million tonnes in the previous 30 days. This lost volume was not compensated by alternative routes — the net volume through the Suez Canal, Bab‑el‑Mandeb and the Cape of Good Hope remained almost unchanged and even began to decline.
Military Escalation and Humanitarian Consequences
The fighting in Mokha and other areas of the western coast has displaced thousands of families. According to the International Organization for Migration, since the escalation began last week, almost 20,000 people have been forced to leave their homes, and the total death toll in the clashes has exceeded 500, mostly combatants.
Saudi Arabia has intensified airstrikes: according to the Houthi‑controlled Saba agency, Saudi warplanes carried out about 40 strikes on Taiz, Hodeidah, Jawf and Marib provinces in recent hours. Saudi authorities have not confirmed this information.
In response, the Houthis struck Saudi territory: according to the Saudi coalition, at least 73 people were wounded in attacks on four southern cities. Saudi civil defence forces issued repeated emergency warnings in Khamis Mushait — four in 24 hours.
Economic Consequences: Oil Above $100
Amid the escalation, Brent crude prices exceeded $100 per barrel for the first time since July. After the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices rose from $66 to $121 per barrel, then stabilised around $97 during the partial reopening of the strait from June 17 to July 14.
| Indicator | Value |
| Brent price | >$100 per barrel |
| Tanker traffic through Hormuz | Fell from 1.97 million tonnes to 22,800 tonnes |
| Port calls at western Saudi ports | +11.4% |
| Port calls at eastern ports | –29.8% |
| Export tonnage through western ports | +0.7% |
| Export tonnage through eastern ports | –43% |
Data show that the East‑West pipeline (Petroline) provided only limited flexibility: an 11.4% increase in port calls on the western coast was accompanied by only a 0.7% rise in export tonnage, while in the east the decline was 43% by tonnage.
Diplomatic Efforts and Iran’s Position
Pakistan conveyed a warning from Saudi Arabia to Tehran urging it to rein in the Houthis, according to Saudi, Pakistani and Iranian sources. A senior Iranian official confirmed that Pakistan delivered the message on Tuesday, and Tehran’s response was: “Iran does not control the Houthis.”
However, two Iranian sources told Reuters that Tehran last week instructed the Houthis to attack Saudi Arabia and promised additional funding and weapons, and that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders arrived in Yemen to coordinate the attacks.
US President Donald Trump again threatened to strike a facility linked to Iran’s nuclear programme and said he expected the war to end after the midterm elections in November.
Forecast: Structural Reconfiguration of Trade Routes
Experts warn that even an immediate ceasefire will not return the situation to normal. Freight and insurance markets have already priced in a permanent risk premium in the region, and the redirection of ships around the Cape of Good Hope adds days to routes and increases costs that are ultimately passed on to consumers.
Traffic through the Suez Canal, according to Lloyd’s List, has fallen by 60–64%, with weekly transits dropping from about 250 to fewer than 100 vessels. The World Bank has warned that prolonged disruptions to energy supplies and rising prices could increase inflationary pressure and weaken economic growth, projecting global growth at 2.5% and inflation around 4% in 2026.
