WASHINGTON (Realist English). The United States will see its oil production fall next year for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a forecast released Tuesday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The agency expects output to drop from a record 13.5 million barrels per day to about 13.3 million by the end of 2026, citing falling oil prices and a sharp decline in active drilling rigs.
“With fewer active drilling rigs, we forecast US operators will drill and complete fewer wells through 2026,” the EIA said in its monthly report. The number of rigs has declined significantly more than the agency previously anticipated.
The revision comes just months after Donald Trump returned to the presidency, campaigning on promises to revive US oil dominance, ramp up production and lower energy costs. However, the sector is now under pressure from weak global crude prices, increased supply from the OPEC+ alliance, and fears over the impact of Trump’s renewed trade disputes on the global economy.
US oilfield activity is already contracting. Baker Hughes reported last week that the number of operating rigs had dropped to 442 — down by 9 in one week and 50 fewer than the same time last year. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $64.98 per barrel on Tuesday, down 17% from this year’s peak and below the break-even level for many shale producers.
The EIA warned that international prices could dip below $60 a barrel by 2026. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs on imported steel and aluminum — key components in drilling operations — are adding further cost pressures.
Wil VanLoh, CEO of Quantum Capital Group, one of the largest investors in US shale, said last week: “The current administration is causing a lot of chaos. I’m really concerned that there’s not a plan.”
According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, US oil production may fall by as much as 640,000 barrels per day between mid-2025 and late 2026 — a drop larger than the daily output of several OPEC countries.
The last time US annual output fell was in 2021, during the pandemic and the tail end of Trump’s first term. It later rebounded under the Biden administration, supported by higher prices and stronger global demand. The new forecast marks a potential turning point for an industry that has reshaped global energy markets over the past two decades.
