MOSCOW (Realist English). The Central Bank of Russia has published official foreign exchange rates effective September 12. The US dollar fell by 9.39 kopecks to 84.2569 roubles, while the euro dropped by 41.28 kopecks to 97.8728 roubles. The Chinese yuan stood at 12.5519 roubles, down 1.18 kopecks.
Exchange Rate Dynamics Over the Week
The US currency has shown a steady decline since the start of the week. On September 9, the dollar stood at 86.4730 roubles; by September 10 it was 85.4594; on September 11 — 84.3508. Thus, over three days, the dollar lost almost 2.2 roubles.
| Date | US Dollar | Euro |
| 09.09.2026 | 86.4730 | 100.4989 |
| 10.09.2026 | 85.4594 | 99.2525 |
| 11.09.2026 | 84.3508 | 98.2856 |
| 12.09.2026 | 84.2569 | 97.8728 |
The euro fell below the psychological threshold of 98 roubles for the first time since late August.
Reasons Behind the Rouble’s Strengthening
Continued tight monetary policy. On September 10, the Bank of Russia left its key rate at 14%. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina stressed that the room for monetary easing has narrowed, and that if budget spending continues to rise, “a tighter monetary policy than in the baseline scenario may be required.” Maintaining a high rate supports interest in rouble assets and limits the potential for rouble weakening.
Reduction of currency purchases under the budget rule. From September 7, the Finance Ministry and the Central Bank cut daily purchases of foreign currency and gold from 6 billion to 1.92 billion roubles — almost threefold. The reason was lower‑than‑expected oil and gas budget revenues in August. Lower state demand for currency reduces pressure on the rouble.
Rising oil prices. Brent crude exceeded $100 per barrel amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, providing psychological support for the rouble, although the actual impact on the currency market appears with a lag.
What Analysts Say
Freedom Global analysts note that the rouble’s reaction to the Central Bank’s decision proved paradoxical: instead of strengthening amid the regulator’s hawkish rhetoric, the currency weakened. This may signal either that the market had already priced in the Central Bank’s decisions, or that fears about the macroeconomic situation have intensified.
Freedom Global’s forecast for the coming week: dollar — 83.5–86 roubles, euro — 96–99 roubles, yuan — 12.4–12.9 roubles.
Veles Capital analyst Yuri Kravchenko notes that the main pressure factor on the rouble remains the geopolitical risk premium, while the oil factor “rather softens geopolitical pressure than forms a sustained strengthening impulse.”
