LONDON (Realist English). On 18 August, gold came under dual pressure: US 10‑year Treasury yields rose to nearly 4.73%, while Brent crude climbed above $91 a barrel after Iran announced a shift to a “fully offensive” military doctrine and Washington refused to extend the temporary truce.
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $4,391.14 per ounce by 04:23 GMT, while US gold futures for December dropped 0.6% to $4,446.70. Earlier in the session, prices had reached $4,436 before correcting.
Precious metals price dynamics
| Instrument | Price | Change |
| Spot gold | $4,391.14/oz | -0.5% |
| Gold (futures, December) | $4,446.70/oz | -0.6% |
| Silver (spot) | $65.11/oz | -1.0% |
| Platinum | $1,748.56/oz | -1.2% |
| Palladium | $1,317.01/oz | -1.2% |
Source: Reuters
Why gold is falling: two main factors
1. Rising Treasury yields. The yield on 10‑year US Treasuries rose to 4.7–4.73%, while 30‑year yields reached 5.31% – their highest level in more than two decades.
Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which offers no coupon income.
2. Oil rises on geopolitics. Brent exceeded $91 a barrel on news of the expiry of the 60‑day truce memorandum between the US and Iran.
Iran announced a shift to a “fully offensive” military posture, while Trump stated he would not extend the agreement. As ANZ analyst Soni Kumari noted, “oil prices will remain one of the key factors keeping gold under pressure, as the Middle East situation remains uncertain.”
The paradox: inflation risks vs. Fed pause
Rising energy prices fuel inflationary expectations and increase the likelihood of monetary policy tightening. This, in turn, weighs on gold despite its status as a safe‑haven asset.
However, recent weak economic data have shifted the market calculus. The loss of 23,000 jobs in July, inflation below expectations and weak retail sales have pushed the probability of the Fed holding rates steady at the September meeting to nearly 65%.
Focus on the Fed minutes
Investors are awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes, scheduled for 19 August. The minutes could provide key signals on the future trajectory of monetary policy.
“Traders’ expectations on Fed rates will be important for gold, with a focus on technical levels,” Kumari noted.
Technical analysis: support and resistance levels
According to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao, spot gold could test support at $4,381. A break below this level could open the way to the $4,320–4,351 range. Near‑term upside targets for buyers are resistance at $4,447.66, then $4,533.68 and $4,571.83 per ounce.
Expert opinion: ‘Gold is caught between two fires’
A commodities strategist at ING’s London office told journalists:
“Gold is caught between two opposing forces. On one hand, weakness in the US economy and expectations of a Fed pause support the precious metal.
On the other, rising bond yields and the oil shock amid Middle East escalation create headwinds. The key question is which force will prove stronger. The Fed minutes on Wednesday could be the catalyst that determines the direction for the coming weeks.”
Analysis: mixed signals for investors
Gold is caught between two opposing forces. On one hand, weakness in the US economy and expectations of a Fed pause support the precious metal.
On the other, rising bond yields and the oil shock amid Middle East escalation create headwinds.
The key question is which force will prove stronger. If the Gulf conflict continues to escalate and oil prices rise, gold could find support as a safe‑haven asset. However, if inflation expectations force the Fed to rethink its plans, pressure on the metal could intensify. The Fed minutes on Wednesday could be the catalyst that determines the direction for the coming weeks.
