FRANKFURT (Realist English). The world’s largest automakers – Volkswagen, Stellantis, Toyota, Suzuki and others – are facing an unprecedented motor oil crisis.
The Middle East conflict has led to an acute shortage of high‑quality Group III base oils, which are essential for the production of modern synthetic motor oils.
In search of a way out, automakers are being forced to urgently switch to alternative blends and formulations, although industry experts warn: alternative suppliers also have limited volumes, and any new shock could lead to a collapse.
Causes: the strike on Qatar and the Hormuz blockade
The key trigger for the crisis was Iran’s rocket strike on Shell’s gas plant in Qatar in March 2026. This facility was one of the world’s largest producers of Group III base oils – a highly refined petroleum product used to produce modern motor oils. The strike put the plant out of commission, requiring extensive repairs.
At the same time, Iran’s de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026 has paralysed maritime shipments from the Gulf region. As Argus Media base oils pricing head Gabriella Twining noted, “even if the strait opens tomorrow, Europe and the US will not receive replenishment before October.”
Some Group III base oil suppliers from the Gulf have already sold out their stocks and declared force majeure.
Prices: nearly tripled since the war began
The cost of Group III base oils in Europe and the US has risen nearly threefold compared to pre‑war levels and stands at about $4,000 per tonne.
In Japan, according to Suzuki, base oil prices have doubled, forcing taxi companies in Osaka to raise fares for passengers.
Automaker response: new blends and alternative suppliers
The largest automakers have been forced to act urgently.
Stellantis stated that it has evaluated “revised lubricants” and has already secured alternative products that comply with “applicable industry standards.” The company is focused on minimising the impact on vehicle service and maintenance.
Volkswagen confirmed that the base oil shortage is “an industry‑wide situation beyond the direct control of individual manufacturers.” The German group has so far secured the necessary supplies and continues to seek additional sources that meet its technical specifications.
Toyota also confirmed that it has faced a shortage but has already secured alternative supplies.
Suzuki found itself in the most vulnerable position – since June, its dealers in Japan have faced delays in motor oil changes. CEO Toshihiro Suzuki told shareholders that the company is reviewing its entire supply chain and diversifying base oil suppliers.
As one manager at a major European lubricant manufacturer noted, “previously, 100% of original equipment manufacturers were reluctant to accept any other lubricants, but today some of them are in a desperate situation.”
Expert opinion: ‘the industry is operating without a safety margin’
Holly Alfano, CEO of the Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association, warned: “Alternative suppliers also have limited volumes, and any new disruption to shipping, a refinery shutdown or another supply chain shock could quickly worsen the situation. The industry continues to operate with minimal safety margin.”
Analysts note that consolidation in the industry has narrowed the number of suppliers, and alternative producers, for example in South Korea, cannot secure normal crude oil supplies.
As Gabriella Twining of Argus Media emphasises, “alternatives are becoming fewer and fewer.”
Automakers have secured alternative supplies for now, but the situation remains extremely tense. Any new escalation in the Middle East could instantly cut off even the channels they have managed to open.
For consumers, the consequences are already being felt: oil changes are becoming more expensive, and in some regions, difficult to obtain at all.
Experts warn that the lubricant crisis could drag on at least until mid‑2027. The question is whether the industry can adapt before the last alternative sources run out.
