NEW YORK (Realist English). Global oil markets remain volatile amid the prolonged diplomatic deadlock over the Strait of Hormuz.
On 13 August, prices corrected after a six‑day rally that pushed Brent above $90 a barrel for the first time since late July.
Current prices: correction after a six‑day rally
As of 13 August:
- Brent – $87.69–88.07 per barrel (down 1–1.5% on the day);
- WTI – $81.97–82.72 per barrel (down 1.5–1.6%).
The decline came after Brent reached $90 and WTI $84.30 in the previous session. Over six consecutive trading sessions, both benchmarks gained a total of approximately 12%.
The main drivers of the correction were downward revisions to demand forecasts by OPEC and the IEA, as well as an unexpected rise in US commercial crude inventories by 17.4 million barrels over the week – to 424.4 million barrels.
Western expert forecasts: from $65 to $120+
The wide range of forecasts from leading analytical houses reflects the extreme uncertainty surrounding geopolitics.
EIA (US Energy Information Administration)
In its August Short‑Term Energy Outlook, the EIA raised its 2026 price forecasts:
- Brent – $86.81 per barrel (previous forecast – $81.91);
- WTI – $80.88 per barrel (previous forecast – $76.26).
In the third quarter of 2026, Brent is expected to average $85 per barrel. For 2027, the forecast is $69.39 for Brent and $65.39 for WTI.
Goldman Sachs
Maintains its baseline forecast: Brent at $80 per barrel in Q4 2026. The 2027 forecast is $75 per barrel. However, in the event of escalation, Brent could spike to $140 per barrel.
Morgan Stanley
Expects Brent at $90 per barrel in Q3 2026 and $80 in Q4.
Barclays
Maintains a forecast of $96 per barrel for Brent in 2026 and $85 in 2027. However, the bank warns of upside risks: if the current Hormuz stalemate persists for three months, Brent could test $150 per barrel.
Citi
Raised its Q3 2026 forecast to $80 per barrel (from $75), but kept Q4 2026 ($70) and 2027 ($65) forecasts unchanged.
Kotak Securities
If talks continue to lose momentum, Brent could rise to $95–97 per barrel. However, any diplomatic breakthrough could quickly send prices crashing.
S&P Global Ratings
Raised forecasts by $10 per barrel for 2026 and $5 per barrel for 2027. 2027 expectations: $80 per barrel for Brent and $75 for WTI.
Macquarie
One of the most bearish forecasts: Brent averaging $77 per barrel in 2026 and $64 in 2027.
Comparative forecast table
| House | Brent 2026 | Brent 2027 |
| EIA | $86.81 | $69.39 |
| Goldman Sachs | $80 (Q4) | 75 $ |
| Morgan Stanley | $90 (Q3) | $80 (Q4) |
| Barclays | 96 $ | 85 $ |
| Citi | $80 (Q3) | 65 $ |
| S&P Global | $90–95 | 80 $ |
| Macquarie | 77 $ | 64 $ |
Supply and demand factors: OPEC and IEA diverge by 2.2 million bpd
Two of the most influential voices in energy – OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) – published diametrically opposing demand forecasts for 2026 on 12 August.
The IEA expects global oil demand to fall by 1.6 million bpd in 2026 – the first annual decline since the COVID‑19 pandemic. The reason: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel prices curbing consumption. The supply forecast for 2026 is a drop of 4.3 million bpd.
OPEC, by contrast, still expects growth in demand in 2026 – by 580,000 bpd. This is the cartel’s fourth consecutive downward revision (780,000 bpd was expected in July), but the gap with the IEA is about 2.2 million bpd.
For 2027, both agencies are aligned in optimism: the IEA expects demand growth of 2.4 million bpd, OPEC of 2.2 million bpd.
The physical market remains tight. The Dated Brent premium over futures (EFP) has risen above $4, and the 3‑2‑1 crack spread (refining crude into products) remains at $64 – well above normal, confirming a shortage of refined products.
Strait of Hormuz: the main uncertainty factor
According to EIA data, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 4.9 million bpd in the second quarter of 2026, from 21.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2025. The US expects supply disruptions from the war with Iran to reach 600,000 bpd and persist until the end of 2027.
As Kotak Securities notes, “diplomacy is no longer sufficient.” Iran and the US have exchanged conflicting reparations demands that neither side can accept. Iran’s parliament is considering a bill to ban US and Israeli vessels from transiting the strait, and the 14‑point memorandum of understanding signed in June remains far from implementation.
The oil market is caught between two scenarios. In the event of a diplomatic breakthrough, prices could quickly collapse – to $70–80 a barrel. If the stalemate and escalation persist, Brent could move above $100, and in an extreme scenario – to $120–150.
Global oil inventories have fallen by 410 million barrels since the start of the war. As Goldman Sachs notes, “market sensitivity to any supply disruptions is higher than ever.” Any new disruption to shipping will immediately be reflected in prices.
