LONDON (Realist English). On October 2, oil prices demonstrated a sharp downward reversal after reports of a possible coordinated release of diesel and crude oil stocks. The market perceived this as potential relief from the fuel deficit caused by the war with Iran and attacks on Russian refineries.
What happened to prices
Oil quotes demonstrated a sharp downward reversal. Brent, which the day before exceeded $102 per barrel, fell below the psychological mark of $100, losing about 2.5–3%. US WTI dropped more than 3.7%, approaching $89 per barrel.
For the week, both benchmarks ended in negative territory: Brent lost about 4.1%, WTI — roughly 3.2%.
Reason for the decline: the French plan
The trigger was a Reuters report that EU countries are discussing a French proposal to release 50 million barrels of diesel from European strategic reserves. IEA countries will additionally provide 50 million barrels of crude oil. In total — 100 million barrels, which the market perceived as potential relief from the deficit.
Background: US pressure on Europe
The price decline is directly linked to Washington’s pressure on European allies. The Trump administration demanded that Germany and France release emergency diesel reserves, threatening otherwise to ban exports of American diesel fuel.
According to sources, the US requested 120 million barrels of diesel from the EU over six months — more than 40% of the European Union’s current strategic reserves. Washington’s motive is the upcoming midterm elections on November 3 and record diesel prices in the US (about $6 per gallon).
Why diesel became key
After refusing Russian diesel, Europe became critically dependent on American supplies. In August 2026, the US share of EU diesel imports reached about 50%, whereas a year earlier it was only 17%. For the UK and the Netherlands, this figure is even higher — 62–72%.
What next
France demands that any agreement include a US commitment not to impose a unilateral ban on diesel exports. Europe fears being left without American supplies after releasing reserves. President Macron proposed raising the issue to the G7 level and holding a separate discussion on oil supplies and prices.
Analysts warn that even a significant release of reserves may have only a temporary effect. Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen noted that the main tension in the energy market is linked specifically to refined product supplies, not crude oil. At the same time, commercial diesel stocks in Europe are already at four-year lows.
Will the French plan be able to cool the market for long? Or will oil return to growth as soon as the effect of the reserve release fades?
