WASHINGTON (Realist English). The Trump administration is under strong political pressure due to record diesel prices in the US. The average retail price of a gallon of diesel has reached a historic high of $6.20–$6.52, significantly above levels at the start of the year. With elections approaching, lowering fuel prices has become a key priority.
However, the root of the problem lies in a global deficit caused by a series of crises:
Middle East conflict. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on tankers in the Red Sea have disrupted supplies from the Persian Gulf, which traditionally covered a significant share of European imports.
Reduction of European capacity. Europe has closed 35 refineries in recent years, losing about 20% of its refining capacity, making it critically dependent on imports.
America’s Grip on Europe
As a result of these crises, Europe has become critically dependent on American diesel. While in 2025 the US supplied only 17% of the EU’s diesel imports, in 2026 that share rose to 32%. For key countries, the situation is even more acute: in August 2026, American diesel accounted for 62% to 72% of total imports for the UK and the Netherlands.
It is this dependence that makes Washington’s threat so effective. The US, as the world’s largest diesel exporter, supplies Europe with about 360,000 barrels per day.
US Demand and Europe’s Reaction
France and Germany are a particular source of irritation for Washington. According to American officials, these countries have failed to fulfill earlier promises to release strategic oil reserves. On Friday, emergency talks were held by the European Commission, as well as Germany, France, Italy, Ireland and the UK. France and Germany are so far refraining from comment, but President Macron has announced a video conference of G7 leaders on energy issues.
Possible Consequences
Analysts warn that a ban on US diesel exports could have catastrophic consequences for Europe. According to Argus Media experts, diesel prices in Europe could soar to unprecedented levels. However, many European traders doubt that Washington will take this step, as the ban would also hit American refineries, which would be forced to cut processing due to a surplus of fuel on the domestic market.
Key Parameters of the Diesel Crisis
| Indicator | Value |
| US diesel price | $6.20–$6.52 per gallon (record) |
| US demand to EU | Release 120 million barrels over 6 months |
| US share of EU diesel imports (2025) | 17% |
| US share of EU diesel imports (2026) | 32% |
| US share of UK and Netherlands imports | 62–72% (August 2026) |
| US diesel supplies to Europe | ~360,000 barrels per day |
| Closed refineries in Europe | 35 (loss of ~20% capacity) |
