WASHINGTON (Realist English). The Trump administration is considering an unprecedented package of economic incentives for Iran in exchange for compliance with the terms of a peace agreement.
The proposals include the creation of an investment fund of up to $300 billion, a phased lifting of sanctions, and the unfreezing of blocked assets. The final signing of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) is scheduled for June 19 in Geneva.
Carrot and stick: what Washington is offering
According to the MoU text, circulated by the pan‑Arab channel Al Arabiya, the US undertakes to begin issuing permits for exports of Iranian crude oil and petrochemical products immediately after the signing. Subsequently – within a timeframe to be agreed in the final agreement – Washington will terminate all primary and secondary sanctions against Iran. In addition, Iran’s frozen funds and assets will be released and become fully available for use. Iran had initially demanded $400 billion in compensation for war damage, but Washington refused to make direct payments.
Vice President JD Vance stressed in a series of interviews with major networks that “not a cent of American money” would go to Iran. According to him, the fund would be financed by private investors from Europe, Asia (especially South Korea and Japan), the United States, and the Gulf states. “If the Iranians behave well, we will invite other countries to invest in their economy,” Vance said.
According to Reuters, more than half of the $300 billion has already been raised. The fund will become operational only after the final agreement is concluded, which is supposed to be worked out within 60 days of the MoU signing.
Israeli reaction: ‘This is not the capitulation Trump promised’
In Jerusalem, Washington’s proposals were met with deep concern. Former Israeli government spokesman Eylon Levy said the deal “rewards Iran without solving the nuclear problem.”
“This is an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz by paying tribute to Iran. It does not solve the nuclear issue. It postpones negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, surrendering the leverage the world has,” Levy said.
According to Levy, Israel fears that the US is trying to “slip out of the war” due to domestic political pressure. He warned that even if Iran’s nuclear program were temporarily halted, “pumping money into the Iranian regime” would lead to funds being directed to ballistic missiles and proxy armies.
“This is not the unconditional surrender that President Trump promised. This is not a comprehensive plan to contain Iran. This is not even a plan to overthrow the Iranian regime,” Levy concluded.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu admitted he had not yet seen the text of the agreement, but said Israel would not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons “with or without an agreement.”
Skepticism and distrust
Analysts also expressed doubts about the deal’s viability. Political scientist and Middle East expert Alexander Kargin believes it is “clearly too early” to talk about peace between the US and Iran. In his view, the memorandum reached is merely a “declaration of intent.”
Key points have been deferred for 60 days, and their implementation raises serious questions. The expert finds the $300 billion investment clause particularly puzzling: if it concerns reparations, such a scenario would be a political defeat for Trump.
Pavel Seleznev, Dean of the Faculty of International Economic Relations at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, believes that the deal with Iran would allow the US to stabilise oil prices and ensure supplies of critically important goods.
Other experts note that both the US and Iran are seriously weary of the protracted conflict, and even a framework memorandum with vague wording could become a necessary “victory note” for both Washington and Tehran.
Contradictions within the White House
Trump himself categorically denied reports of $300 billion being paid to Iran, calling them “fake news spread by Democrats.” However, the president appears to have confused the figure – the reports referred to $300 billion, not $300 million, as he claimed. At the same time, senior officials confirmed that discussions about a “large $300 billion fund for the country’s reconstruction” are ongoing.
Critics point out that the volume of financial aid to Iran under discussion could significantly exceed that provided for in the 2015 nuclear deal under Obama. The Trump administration faces a dilemma: how to offer Iran sufficient incentives without creating the impression that Washington is “rewarding” the Islamic regime for its aggression.
