BRUSSELS (Realist English). For the first time since 2013, when Croatia joined the European Union, the question of enlargement has once again taken centre stage in European politics. The war in Ukraine has turned what was long a technical procedure into a “geopolitical imperative.”
However, behind the rhetoric of “strategic necessity” lies deep uncertainty: is Europe ready to accept new members, and if so, on what terms? One thing is clear: there is no consensus, and time is running out.
Montenegro: the ‘locomotive’ of enlargement and the first ‘swallow’ in 17 years
Today, Montenegro remains the only candidate country with a realistic prospect of joining in the foreseeable future. In April 2026, the EU created a working group to prepare an accession treaty for one of the candidates – the first such group in 17 years.
“There is no clearer signal that the EU sees Montenegro as the next member,” said Strahinja Subotić, an analyst at the European Policy Centre.
The country, with a population of just over 600,000, hopes to become the EU’s 28th member by 2028. As of mid-2026, it has closed 18 of 33 negotiating chapters. The process has been ongoing for 18 years – the application was submitted back in 2008.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron even visited the country for the EU-Western Balkans summit in June to personally demonstrate their support.
Ukraine and Moldova: the ‘geopolitical accelerator’ hits reality
Russia’s war against Ukraine has fundamentally changed the discourse. Candidates, including Ukraine and Moldova, are insisting on accelerating the process. “It’s now or never,” say Kyiv and Chisinau. On 14 July 2026, the EU held four intergovernmental conferences on enlargement in a single day – the first time in more than 20 years. Ukraine and Moldova opened the 6th negotiating cluster, covering foreign policy, security and defence.
However, optimism is hitting the harsh reality of slow institutional progress: Ukraine has opened only two of six clusters. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos acknowledged that technical readiness to open the remaining clusters exists, but “it depends on the EU member states.”
Ukraine’s ambassador Ruslan Stefanchuk called for a “maximum broad and strong” wave of enlargement, but Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić warned: “there will be no major EU enlargement in the coming years.”
The Western Balkans: an ‘island surrounded by the EU’ at different speeds
The shadow side of the process remains the Western Balkan countries. Besides Montenegro, Albania is showing progress. In June 2026, Commissioner Kos called Albania and Montenegro the “most advanced” candidates. The rest – Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Kosovo – are lagging behind. Serbia has been placed in the “backslider” category. Vučić does not hide his scepticism: “We should not expect miracles or major EU enlargements.”
Notably, Belgrade supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but Kyiv refuses to recognise Kosovo’s independence. This duality is another reminder that the “European path” remains the best, but far from simple.
Internal EU debates: reform or stagnation?
Discussions in Brussels are increasingly focused not on the candidates’ readiness, but on the EU’s own readiness. Commissioner Kos admitted that the EU is still using a methodology developed 40 years ago. Germany and France are promoting the idea of phased integration and “associate membership.”
Five countries (Austria, Czech Republic, Italy, Slovakia, Slovenia) are proposing gradual integration of candidates into the common market. The essence of all proposals is the same: “gradualism” – offering economic and political advantages long before full membership.
The problem is that the reform process itself has stalled. The Commission proposed three options: the status quo, acceleration, or “reverse enlargement” (accession without completing reforms). “Option three is a revolution – it’s not suitable,” Kos said. “But the status quo is not an option either.” In the end, reform is postponed until member states agree on their positions.
‘Carrot and stick’: how the EU plans to avoid ‘Hungary 2.0’
The main reason Brussels is in no hurry to open its doors is the fear of new members who could “go rogue.” The experience of Hungary, where Viktor Orbán’s government has for years blocked sanctions against Russia and delayed aid to Ukraine, has been a lesson.
Now the EU is developing tough “safeguards” for future members. “If a new member state doesn’t respect the rules, the safeguards will bite – and this is the system we are building now,” Commissioner Kos said. Montenegro’s accession treaty will serve as a model: it will include mechanisms to suspend funding and even limit voting rights in the event of a backslide in reforms. However, even with this approach, the question remains: can these mechanisms truly protect the union – or will they merely create an illusion of control without solving the fundamental problem of political will?
“Enlargement is a priority for the EU, and if our candidates do their job, then we must do ours,” says Commissioner Kos. The European Council calls enlargement to the Western Balkans “the most important geopolitical investment.” But behind the grand rhetoric lies an absence of strategic consensus. While candidates demand action “now or never,” the EU is still arguing about the rules of the game.
The war in Ukraine has given the process momentum, but it has not removed institutional and political obstacles. The question of “whether” enlargement should happen is no longer the issue – the question is “how” and “when.” Given that no candidate can join without the unanimous approval of all 27 member states, the answer will depend not on reforms in Kyiv or Podgorica, but on political will in Berlin, Paris and Brussels.
