EDINBURGH (Realist English). A Nigel Farage-led government in Westminster could drive Scottish support for independence to near-historic highs, according to a new Norstat poll for The Sunday Times. The survey, conducted among 1,007 Scottish voters between May 27 and May 30, found that 58% would support independence if Farage became prime minister.
Currently, support for leaving the UK stands at 54%, up from 50% in January, reflecting a growing nationalist sentiment amid political instability in London. The potential 4-point surge under a Farage government would push the movement toward what some see as a psychological threshold for triggering a new referendum.
The last time independence support reached this level was during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, when an Ipsos Scotland poll for STV showed backing at 58% — buoyed by then-First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s widely praised pandemic response.
The new findings come amid sliding support for the Scottish National Party (SNP), which has seen a two-point drop in both constituency and regional voting intentions, down to 33% and 28%, respectively, ahead of the 2026 Holyrood elections.
While Labour in Scotland saw a modest rise — polling at 19% in constituencies and 18% on the regional list — the real surprise was Reform UK, which climbed to 18% and 16%, marking a notable upswing in support for Farage’s party.
The poll underscores a paradox in Scottish politics: growing disillusionment with the SNP, but simultaneously a sharp rise in independence sentiment — especially when juxtaposed with the prospect of a hard-right government in Westminster.
The data suggests Farage may achieve what years of SNP campaigning could not — a unifying trigger for Scotland’s independence movement. The challenge now lies with Scottish pro-independence leaders: can they capitalize on this rising tide or will internal fragmentation squander the moment?
