WASHINGTON (Realist English). Ahead of the midterm elections on 3 November, in which all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 senators are up for re-election, Democrats are in a strong position, but the scale of their potential success remains a matter of debate. President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to record lows, and national polls show a double-digit Democratic lead, but the structural features of the Senate and the experience of recent years are prompting analysts to refrain from unequivocal forecasts.
Polls and Trump’s approval: record unpopularity
According to an Emerson College poll published on 30 October, Trump’s approval rating stands at 37% — his lowest figure in the organization’s research. Democrats lead Republicans by 10 percentage points in the national generic ballot for Congress. Other polls confirm this picture: RealClearPolling averages show Democrats ahead 52% to 43.1% (8.9 points), an NBC News poll — 52% to 45%, and Reuters/Ipsos — 47% to 36% among registered voters. According to Civiqs, Trump’s net approval rating remains negative in 42 of 50 states, including all six states where the Senate battle is unfolding: Alaska (-25%), Michigan (-26%), Maine (-29%), North Carolina (-18%), Ohio (-18%) and Texas (-20%).
Political scientists note that Trump is heading into the midterms as the most unpopular president since Harry Truman in 1946, with a rating at least 10 points worse than before the 2025 elections and 12 points lower than on the eve of voting day in 2018, when Democrats produced a “blue wave.”
House of Representatives: almost a done deal
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report in its latest updates classifies 222 districts as favoring Democrats and 195 as favoring Republicans, with another 18 considered “toss-ups,” 14 of which are currently held by Republicans.
Forecasters expect Democrats to gain between 12 and 25 additional seats, which would give them up to 240 mandates — the largest majority since 2009. Cook Political Report founder Charlie Cook called the House a “done deal” for Democrats. To win, Democrats need a net gain of three seats.
Senate: a far more difficult task
The situation in the Senate is fundamentally different. Republicans control 53 seats against 47 for Democrats and two independents who caucus with them. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach the threshold of 51 senators (in a 50-50 tie, control remains with Republicans, since Vice President JD Vance can vote as tie-breaker).
The 2026 election map is extremely unfavorable for Democrats: almost all the Republican seats they are trying to flip are in states where Trump won by at least 11 percentage points in 2024; the exceptions are Maine and North Carolina.
Nevertheless, recent New York Times/Siena University polls show Democrats leading in six of seven key states determining Senate control (Michigan, Kansas, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa), including Texas and Kansas — states that have not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988 and 1932, respectively. Historian and forecaster Allan Lichtman estimates Democrats’ chances of Senate control at 67%, predicting a 51-49 majority. Cook Political Report expects a gain of two to six Senate seats, while Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 54% chance of winning the Senate.
Early voting: record turnout and Democratic edge
According to the University of Florida (Election Lab), as of midday Friday, 30 October, 47.9 million Americans had voted early — a record for midterms, exceeding the 2022 figure (45.9 million). In states that track party affiliation, Democrats make up about 44% of early voters, Republicans — 31%, independents and minor-party supporters — 25%.
The increase is especially noticeable in Texas, where turnout in the first days was about 50% higher than in 2022, and in North Carolina (+37%). However, experts caution against interpreting these figures as a final result: Republicans traditionally vote more actively on election day, which could reduce the Democratic advantage.
Factors restraining a “wave”
Despite polls favorable to Democrats, a number of circumstances prevent talk of a “blue wave” as a fait accompli. First, the history of polls in the Trump era shows a systematic underestimation of Republicans: in 2024, a poll in Iowa showed Kamala Harris ahead by 3 points, while Trump won there by 13 points.
Although pollsters are adjusting their methodology, the risk of error remains. Second, the structure of the Senate means that even with a national lead, Democrats may not gain the necessary four seats. Third, redistricting in a number of states, initiated by Republicans, has changed the map in their favor. Finally, election day may bring higher Republican turnout than early data suggest.
Current dynamics indicate that Democrats will very likely retake the House, turning the midterms into a vote of no confidence in Trump. However, the scale of this success — whether it will be limited to a “significant rebuke” or grow into a “wave” — depends on the Senate, where Democrats face an almost impossible task: winning in several deeply Republican states.
The key question is not whether Republicans will lose the House, but whether Democrats can gain control of both chambers of Congress, which will determine their ability to block Trump’s legislative agenda in the remaining two years of his term. If the Senate remains Republican, the “blue wave” will be limited, and political gridlock will be inevitable. If Democrats pull off a Senate breakthrough, it will be the most serious political defeat of Trump’s entire political career.
