ROME (Realist English). The tax in question is contained in Article 17 of the draft budget law approved by the government and submitted to parliament. It applies to individuals who have been tax residents of Italy for at least six of the ten years preceding the move, and whose financial assets — shares, bonds, securities and other instruments — are valued at €800,000 or more.
The 26% rate is levied on capital gains — the difference between the purchase price and the current value of the assets — even if those assets have not been sold and the gain remains unrealized.
Mechanism and exceptions
For those moving to another EU country or a state with a tax treaty with Italy, a deferral is provided: 50% of the tax must be paid in advance, with the remainder upon the sale of assets. The deferral applies for five years for moves within the EU and ten years for other countries. If during this period the assets are not sold and the gain is not realized, the tax is annulled and advance payments are refunded.
Criticism and coalition split
The measure has drawn criticism even within the ruling alliance. Stefania Craxi, leader of the Senate faction of Forza Italia — Meloni’s coalition partner — told Bloomberg: “The principle is right.
Wealth created in Italy should be taxed in Italy. But we have studied the proposal, and it absolutely must be corrected” so that the tax “is not perceived as a burden hindering investment.” Former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has also attacked the measure, and amendments are already being discussed in parliament.
Analysts point to a more fundamental problem: the tax sends mixed signals. Less than a decade ago, Italy offered wealthy foreigners a preferential regime with a flat tax on foreign income, which was raised to €300,000 this year but remains attractive.
Now the country, in the words of commentators, is moving toward a model more characteristic of California with its debates on a billionaire tax than of Greece, which actively lures the ultra-wealthy.
Expected revenues: symbolic sums
Government estimates of revenue from the new tax are extremely modest. According to Repubblica, potential receipts are estimated at €13.47 million, but taking into account only 50% advance payments, the expected annual amount falls to €6.74 million.
For 2027, the forecast is €3.37 million, taking into account the 180-day payment deadline. Subsequently, after the five-year deferral period for moves within the EU expires, a negative fiscal effect of €3.37 million per year is possible due to the refund of advances. For a budget of more than €26 billion, these are “hardly astronomical sums,” but their symbolic significance is considerable.
The Italian “exit tax” is primarily a political gesture rather than a fiscal instrument. Its main function is to demonstrate to voters ahead of the 2027 elections that the government is ready to make the wealthy “pay their share,” even if real revenues prove symbolic.
However, the same logic creates a risk: the signal received by globally mobile wealthy individuals may be read not as “Italy is becoming fairer” but as “the rules of the game can change at any moment.”
For a country whose tax attractiveness has been one of its few competitive advantages amid a stagnating economy, this creates tension between short-term political gain and long-term reputation. The key question is whether the matter will be limited to amendments softening the threshold and mechanism, or whether the very principle of “taxing unrealized gains” will take root, changing the perception of Italy as a safe haven for capital.
