SÃO PAULO(Realist English). Brazil is entering the final phase of its presidential campaign. On Sunday, October 4, about 160 million voters will determine who will lead Latin America’s largest economy: incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, seeking a fourth term, or Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
Candidates: two poles
Lula, who turns 81 in October, represents the left and is one of the key figures in Latin American politics of the last two decades. His candidacy was officially nominated by the Workers’ Party (PT), with Geraldo Alckmin of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) again as his vice-presidential running mate.
Flávio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old senator from the Liberal Party (PL), positions himself as the continuer of his father’s course — Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after his failed re-election bid in 2022. At the party convention in July, Flávio presented the support of Argentine President Javier Milei, as well as a video address from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Polls: technical tie
Data as of October 3 shows an extremely tight race. Datafolha gives Lula 45% against 42% for Flávio in the first round — within the double margin of error. CNT/MDA records 47.8% for Lula and 42.1% for Flávio. The gap has narrowed from 12 points in August to 5.7 points.
In a hypothetical second round, Datafolha shows 48% against 45% in favor of the incumbent president, also within a technical tie. Given current ratings, the likelihood of a second round on October 25 is high.
Funding and support
Lula’s campaign received 77.3 million reais, of which 75 million are transfers from the PT national leadership from the Electoral Financing Fund. Flávio’s campaign has 61.7 million reais, of which 55.2 million are from the PL.
Among celebrities, Lula has the advantage: nearly 150 cultural and artistic figures have publicly supported him, including Ivete Sangalo, Chico Buarque, Caetano Veloso, and Maria Bethânia. Flávio’s support is more modest — among others, country singer Amado Batista and TV host Penélope Nova.
Background: division and fatigue
The campaign is taking place amid deep political division. Brazil remains one of the last left-wing strongholds in the region, while in Argentina, Chile, and other countries right-wing forces backed by Donald Trump have come to power.
Both candidates have a high rejection rate — 45% each. Polls record a significant share of voters disappointed with all candidates. “This is a two-pole polarization that leaves no space for an alternative,” analysts note.
The Trump factor
US President Donald Trump said on October 1 that he is watching the Brazilian elections “very closely” and called them “very important.” At the same time, he did not name any candidate and did not give open support to Flávio Bolsonaro, unlike in the recent elections in Colombia.
Washington suspended consular services in Brasília “for security reasons,” and Australia closed its embassy for the same reason. Police conducted searches but “found no evidence” confirming the threats.
Trump has used tariffs and sanctions to pressure Brasília — from the trial of his ally Jair Bolsonaro to accusations of unfair trade practices. Lula has repeatedly warned him not to “interfere” in the elections.
Will Lula be able to mobilize the left-wing electorate for a fourth term? Or will Brazil follow the regional trend and return the right to the presidential seat?
