VILNIUS (Realist English). The future presence of US troops in Lithuania is “under review,” the Baltic republic’s defense minister said.
Although Washington assured Vilnius that new rotations would arrive, the timing, size and equipment remain uncertain amid the growing rift between Donald Trump’s administration and its European NATO allies over the war with Iran.
What is happening with the American contingent
The United States is withdrawing thousands of troops stationed in Germany and Poland. In Lithuania, the current rotation of US forces is leaving as scheduled, but the next planned group is not arriving. As Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas explained to reporters in Vilnius:
“The next rotation is currently under review. Since the number of US troops in Europe is changing, this naturally leads to a review of the regional posture.”
This means Lithuania could be left without an American armored battalion of about 1,000 troops on its soil for the first time since 2020.
Negotiations and assurances
Kaunas discussed the situation with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last week in Singapore at the Shangri-La Dialogue conference.
“We have received assurances that the next rotation in Lithuania will arrive. But when exactly, with what capabilities and in what composition — that will be announced later,” the minister said.
He also stressed that the American side confirmed the “Baltic region is of critical importance to NATO and the United States,” and that Lithuania’s defense spending, which will reach 5.4% of GDP this year, is “held up as an example to other allies.”
What Lithuania stands to lose
The current US rotation, which arrived in October 2025, consists of two battalions of the 1st Cavalry Division from Texas. Its equipment includes Abrams tanks, Bradley fighting vehicles and Paladin tracked self-propelled howitzers.
These were the first units stationed at the new permanent base in Pabradė, built by Lithuania specifically for American troops near the border with Belarus. Lithuania, which borders Russia, has tripled its defense spending since 2022.
Lithuania’s response: payments and search for alternatives
Lithuania, which borders Russia and Belarus, has one of the highest defense budgets in NATO. In 2026, it amounts to about €4.79 billion. Since 2022, defense spending has tripled. Despite the uncertainty over the US contingent, Vilnius continues to invest in the alliance and its own defense projects:
- German battalion accepted. Germany has stationed a brigade of up to 5,000 troops in Lithuania — the largest deployment of the Bundeswehr abroad.
- Joint exercises continue. In May 2026, the Brave Griffin 26-II exercises took place with the participation of troops from Lithuania, Poland, Portugal and the United States.
- HIMARS procurement. Lithuania signed a contract for the delivery of a second HIMARS battery. The total cost of the two contracts is about $778 million.
- Air defense development. The US approved the sale of AIM-9X missiles for Lithuania’s NASAMS system.
The split within the alliance
The decision to reduce the US contingent in Europe is linked to the deepening disagreements between the White House and its European NATO allies over the war with Iran. The Trump administration is demanding that Europe take primary responsibility for the continent’s defense, while redeploying resources to other theaters.
Lithuania, as one of the most vulnerable eastern flanks, finds itself at the epicenter of this reconfiguration.
The wider review of US military presence in Europe
The decision on Lithuania is part of a broader review of US military presence in Europe amid the war with Iran and growing transatlantic tensions.
- Troop withdrawal from Germany. On May 1, 2026, the Pentagon announced the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany. The official reason was “reallocation of resources to other theaters of military operations.”
- Canceled deployment to Poland. The Pentagon also canceled the deployment of the 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team, numbering about 4,000 troops, which was to be sent to Poland. However, Trump later announced his intention to add 5,000 troops to Poland. These contradictory signals are creating significant uncertainty for allies on the eastern flank.
Lithuania has found itself hostage to Washington’s new strategy. The only replacement for the American battalion at present is the German brigade, which is creating a new force configuration in the region. The coming weeks will be decisive. The next round of consultations is expected at the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7-8.
Until then, the Baltic republic will continue to balance between Washington’s assurances and growing uncertainty, while its NATO allies will watch closely to see whether the Pentagon’s words that the “Baltic region is of critical importance” remain an empty declaration or turn into concrete actions.
Fundamental reasons: what lies behind the review
Analysts highlight three key reasons for the review of US military presence in Europe:
- Strategic reorientation. The US is redeploying resources to other priority directions.
- Pressure on allies. The Trump administration is demanding that Europe take greater responsibility for its own defense.
- The war with Iran. The conflict has highlighted deep disagreements between the US and its European allies: no NATO country joined the military action against Iran, which has caused sharp displeasure in Washington.
Analysts agree that the review of US presence in Europe is unparalleled in scale since the end of the Cold War. In the view of commentators, the United States remains in Europe but is abandoning previous, almost unconditional guarantees. Transatlantic relations are shifting from an absolute security guarantor to conditional partnership, in which each ally must prove its contribution.
“The US remains in Europe but refuses to match previous expectations. The relationship is shifting from an almost absolute, unconditional guarantee to conditional partnership, where burdens are measured, commitments are reviewed, and allies are asked what they bring to the table,” writes The Jerusalem Post.
French President Emmanuel Macron called on Europe to be “serious” in managing the alliance: “To remain free, you must inspire fear.”
In Russia, what is happening is interpreted ambiguously. On the one hand, the reduction of several thousand US troops in Europe is not seen as a critical change.
On the other hand, Moscow may perceive it as a sign of American weakness or confusion. Some analysts do not rule out that Moscow will perceive the absence of a rotation in Lithuania as a signal of weakness.
