DUBAI (Realist English). While US President Donald Trump assures the world that the Strait of Hormuz will soon reopen, the real negotiations between Iran and Oman are moving toward an agreement that could be a strategic victory for Tehran — but a diplomatic defeat for Washington.
A senior source in the Gulf states put the chances of a deal by Friday at “50-50.” At the same time, Iranian officials are making it clear: even if an agreement with Oman is reached, it does not guarantee the immediate reopening of the strait.
’50-50′: scepticism amid Trump’s optimism
The US president said on Tuesday that an agreement could be reached “tomorrow or the day after.” “Great progress has been made. They called me and said, ‘Please, let’s talk,'” Trump said. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the US is involved in the talks between Oman and Iran, and “progress has been made in these talks, but a final agreement has not yet been reached.”
However, behind the scenes of Middle Eastern diplomacy, the mood is far more restrained. A senior representative of a Gulf state told CNN that the chances of a deal by Friday are only “50-50.” One of the key problems, according to him, is that the Iranian delegation at the talks is not represented by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which will have to approve the details of any temporary agreement.
The deal Trump wouldn’t want to see
Under the draft agreement, vessels entering the Persian Gulf would follow a channel controlled by Iran, while those leaving would take a route off Oman’s coast. “The temporary plan being discussed with Oman gives Tehran full control over inbound shipping,” an Iranian source confirmed to Reuters. A “service fee” is envisaged to cover environmental and security costs, with revenues split between Iran and Oman.
Iranian official Saeed Ajorlou, a member of the negotiating team, told state television IRIB that Tehran’s goal is to “establish temporary arrangements” lasting one to three months, “where Iran will dominate.” According to him, the negotiations should “establish Iranian rules, because security, mine clearance and maritime services are provided by Iran.”
At the same time, Iranian officials insist: the legal regime in the strait will not return to its pre‑war state, when no country controlled shipping. Control over the strait has become as much a red line for Tehran as the right to nuclear enrichment.
Iran: ‘The US is interfering – even an Oman deal doesn’t guarantee opening’
Trump’s optimism appears to have surprised Tehran. “The main reason for the delay in reaching an agreement with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz is US interference and Trump’s threats,” an informed source told the Iranian Tasnim news agency. Another semi‑official agency, Fars, reported that some US officials “sent mixed signals and, directly or through regional partners, disrupted the course of the talks.”
Iranian state television IRIB, citing an informed source, said that even if an agreement is reached between Tehran and Muscat, the strait will remain closed as long as the US continues its “violations.” The opening of the strait depends on “a change in US behaviour and the correction of its violations.”
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed that the talks with Oman are “positive” in nature and are being conducted at both technical and political levels. However, he stressed: these talks are exclusively bilateral between Iran and Oman and have nothing to do with the US.
Washington’s reaction and international law
The White House appears to recognise that an agreement between Iran and Oman could be a significant strategic victory for Tehran. As AP notes, the US may try to block the deal by refusing to lift the blockade of Iranian ports.
A US official familiar with the talks said on condition of anonymity that any “temporary” routes would not require Iran’s approval or the imposition of fees. The US still intends to return to the status quo in which “neither side controls traffic lanes or the ability to transit through them.” Secretary Rubio has repeatedly stated that any control over international waters is contrary to international law.
The negotiation process on the Strait of Hormuz has reached an impasse of contradictions. Trump speaks of progress and an imminent deal, but the Iranian side continues to insist on the absence of contacts with the Americans. Technical talks with Oman are indeed advancing, but even their successful completion, according to Tehran, does not guarantee the unblocking of the strait — as long as the US does not change its behaviour in the region.
As CNN notes, “plans for the future of the Strait of Hormuz and their chances of success change almost daily.” However, one thing remains unchanged: Iran has no intention of giving up control over the strategic waterway. And any agreement that is signed will most likely formalise this state of affairs — making it more of a capitulation of US positions than the diplomatic breakthrough Trump speaks of.
“Where Iran will dominate” — this phrase, according to CNN sources, “may not suit either Washington or the Gulf capitals.” The only question is whether Trump is ready to admit defeat — or whether he will prefer to continue talking about a victory that does not actually exist.
