TEHRAN (Realist English). Iran is preparing for a new campaign of US bombing that could be larger than the previous one. Bloomberg reported this on October 2, citing an anonymous Iranian official.
Key points of the statement
According to the official, Iran has the capability to respond to possible strikes. At the same time, he acknowledged that the economic situation in the country is “very painful,” but Iran is “adapting.”
US sanctions and the naval blockade have “very seriously” complicated the economic situation. Inflation is approaching 90%, and the rial has lost about 25% of its value in two months.
Waiting until after the elections
According to Bloomberg, Iranian officials see little likelihood of a peace agreement before the US midterm elections on November 3. The risk of escalation after them is assessed as high.
Amid the deadlock in negotiations, US President Donald Trump said on October 1 that he would have to decide: “Either Iran signs a deal, or it will no longer exist.”
Background: weakening Iranian control
Bloomberg notes that Iran’s key leverage — control over the Strait of Hormuz — is weakening. Saudi Arabia’s oil exports rose from 3.4 million barrels per day in August to 6.1 million barrels in September.
According to JPMorgan estimates, Middle East supplies have reached 17.5 million barrels per day, which is 98% of the level before the US and Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, 2026.
Earlier, in August, Bloomberg reported that Iran is reorganizing its armed forces, moving toward an “offensive doctrine” for a protracted confrontation. In addition, according to April data, Iran prepared in advance for strikes by decentralizing command and dispersing weapons, which allowed it to preserve its missile and drone potential.
