WASHINGTON (Realist English). The 38‑day US bombing campaign against Iran has diminished the Islamic Republic’s ability to threaten global security, but has not yet eliminated the threat altogether, Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM), told a Senate hearing on 14 May 2026.
“It’s a very large country,” Cooper noted as he testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee. He acknowledged that Iran still possesses “a very moderate, if not small, capability” to strike neighbouring regional states.
Washington and Tehran remain locked in a month‑long stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz, with no clear path forward as both sides have rejected proposed off‑ramps from the crisis.
State of Iran’s armed forces: CENTCOM’s assessment
Initially, Iran retaliated for the joint US‑Israeli attack on its territory by choking traffic through the waterway, through which roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil normally flows. The Iranians achieved this in part by the mere threat of naval mine warfare, though some vessels were also attacked. The United States, in turn, imposed a blockade on all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports.
“Iran’s capability to stop commerce through the strait has been dramatically degraded,” the CENTCOM commander said. However, “their voice remains very loud, and those threats are clearly heard by the merchant shipping and insurance industries.”
Cooper did not address how the impasse in the strait might be resolved, but asserted that US forces had severely degraded Iran’s war‑fighting capacity, including the elimination of roughly 90% of its arsenal of more than 8,000 naval mines.
He also declared that US forces had “met every military objective” under Operation Epic Fury, citing the destruction of 90% of Iran’s defence industrial base.
“Open sources are not accurate”
In recent days, however, media reports have cast doubt on the most expansive claims made by the Trump administration about military triumph over Iran. On 13 May, for example, The New York Times reported that US intelligence agencies believe Iran has retained about 70% of the missiles it had before the war, and roughly the same proportion of its mobile launchers.
Cooper declined to discuss specific intelligence assessments, but contended that the figures he has seen in “open sources are not accurate.”
“It’s more than just the numbers,” he added. “The command‑and‑control has been shattered. There has been significant degradation of capability. And they have no ability to produce missiles or drones on the back end.”
More broadly, Cooper insisted: “Iran’s threat has been significantly degraded. They no longer threaten regional partners or the United States in ways they were able to do before, across every domain.”
“Most notably, we have degraded Iran’s ability to project power beyond its borders and threaten the region and our interests,” Cooper continued. “Today, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis are cut off from Iranian weapons and support.”
Those groups, commonly known as Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”, allowed the Islamic Republic to wield influence across the Middle East while maintaining plausible deniability for their armed actions. In the 30 months before Operation Epic Fury began, Cooper said, these affiliated militias carried out more than 350 attacks on US service members and diplomats stationed in the region.
Admiral Cooper’s testimony paints a picture of an ambiguous victory. On the one hand, the Trump administration reports the destruction of 90% of Iran’s defence industrial base and naval mines, as well as the severing of ties between Tehran and its proxy forces.
On the other, intelligence acknowledges that Iran has retained 70% of its missiles and mobile launchers, and the CENTCOM commander himself is forced to admit that the threat has not been fully eliminated.
Moreover, Iran’s “voice remains very loud” – merchant shipping and insurers still take its threats seriously. The Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded, and the talks have reached an impasse.
A war that has already cost the Pentagon more than $29 billion has led to a military stalemate, not a decisive victory.
