TEHRAN (Realist English). The United States and Iran, despite reports of progress, continue to exchange military strikes, while Tel Aviv, acting at full throttle, is conducting a ground operation in Lebanon, trying to solve its problems before Washington and Tehran sit down at the negotiating table.
US-Iran Talks: The Last Mile Turns into a Marathon
After months of war, diplomats on May 28 finally agreed on a draft 60‑day memorandum of understanding, but the final word remained with the US president. A two‑hour meeting in the White House Situation Room on May 29 ended without a decision. Donald Trump did not give his final approval.
- Washington’s position: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US is ready for “any good deal” and is not forcing the pace. Trump has toughened his demands and requested amendments to the agreement. According to Axios, negotiators are prepared to wait for Tehran’s response: “We are ready to wait so that in the end the US president gets the deal he is seeking. Maybe we will wait a week, maybe less or more.”
- Iran’s position: Tehran remains cautiously optimistic but warns that no final agreement has yet been reached. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed that the sides continue to exchange messages, and the Fars news agency reported that the agreement is in the final stages of approval. Iran insists that the priority is ending the conflict, while the nuclear issue is being postponed.
The Main Stumbling Block: The Fate of Uranium
The key point of disagreement remains the future of Iran’s nuclear file.
- Iran insists that the current round of talks is only about ending the war, with the nuclear issue to be discussed later.
- The US and Israel demand immediate and concrete guarantees. The draft memorandum includes Iran’s commitment not to seek nuclear weapons, but Trump is pushing for more detailed clauses on the removal of uranium. According to estimates, Iran possesses about 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium, and neutralizing this stockpile is a central element of Washington’s strategy.
Israel: Escalation Amid Isolation and Readiness for War
Tel Aviv, which has effectively been left out of the talks, is showing extreme irritation, acting on two fronts.
- Military preparations against Iran: The IDF is on the highest state of alert and says it could resume “intensive combat operations immediately.” The US and Israel are fully coordinated in case war resumes, and Washington is increasing weapons deliveries. Israel also seriously fears that Tehran could launch a preemptive strike.
- Ground operation in Lebanon: Without waiting for a ceasefire with Iran, Israel has moved to decisive action against Hezbollah. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he had ordered operations to be accelerated and the movement to be “crushed.”
“I have ordered to accelerate our operations even more actively… We will intensify our strikes, increase our firepower and crush them,” Netanyahu said.
The Lebanese Front: Chronicle of the Offensive
The IDF is not just making statements; it is conducting a full‑scale operation in southern Lebanon.
- Ground phase: Israeli forces have crossed the strategic Litani River, which the IDF is using as a new control line, and have reached the Beaufort area. The operation had been prepared for about a year. The Air Force is carrying out dozens of strikes on positions in the Bekaa Valley and southern areas. Fighting has moved to direct clashes on the territory of Lebanese villages.
- Gaining strategic high ground: Israel has established control over commanding heights, allowing it to track and neutralize rocket threats. The breakthrough was made possible by engineering preparations, including the construction of crossings over the Litani.
- Escalation of retaliatory strikes: Hezbollah is expanding its range of fire – rockets and drones are reaching Safed, Nahariya and Karmiel. The movement is also attacking Israeli barracks and military posts.
Humanitarian Catastrophe and Casualties
The conflict is inflicting enormous damage on the civilian population.
- Casualties in Lebanon: According to Lebanese authorities, more than 3,100 people have been killed in Israeli strikes since March.
- Child casualties: UNICEF is sounding the alarm: over the past week, an average of 11 children were killed or wounded every day as a result of the fighting.
- Displacement: Thousands of families are fleeing the southern suburbs of Beirut and other areas in the south of the country. Israeli forces regularly issue evacuation warnings.
- Israeli losses: Since the start of the fighting in Lebanon, 23 Israeli soldiers and one civilian contractor have been killed.
Israel’s actions are being received ambiguously in the West and are creating tensions with its allies.
The Widening Gap Between Washington and Tel Aviv
Analysts are recording a growing gap between US diplomatic efforts and Israel’s actions on the ground. Lebanese sources believe that the military escalation is taking place with Washington’s tacit consent – giving a “green light” for strikes while trying to prevent an all‑out war.
“Informed sources reported that Lebanon understands implicitly that Israel is continuing its escalation with the tacit consent of the United States, and that Washington is not yet ready to pressure its ally beyond the limit of preventing strikes on Beirut and its southern suburbs,” one report said.
Hezbollah’s Paradox
Commenting on the situation, one Lebanese official noted that the only means of pressure on Israel for Hezbollah remains war.
The Iranian Factor
A former senior CIA official stated that the success of a US‑Iran deal depends directly on whether Washington can restrain Israel from derailing the talks.
Assessment of Israeli Experts
Analysts in Israel believe that the operation in Lebanon is an attempt by Netanyahu to create “facts on the ground” and strengthen his position before diplomats tie his hands with an agreement with Tehran.
