LONDON (Realist English). August 2026 has become a month of frozen tension for the global oil market. Brent prices have held largely in the $87–89 per barrel range for most of the month, and on August 28 oil traded at around $88.28, down 0.27% from the previous day.
Over the month, Brent rose a symbolic 0.21%, but year‑on‑year the increase is a striking 30.82%. In July 2026, the high was $100.69 per barrel, the low $71.57, and the average $83.92. The market thus remains in a zone of elevated volatility, but without sharp moves in either direction.
The Hormuz Factor: Partial Recovery, But Not Peace
The main price driver remains the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Goldman Sachs, Gulf oil exports have recovered to about two‑thirds of pre‑war levels amid increased flows through the strait. Total crude exports from the region have risen to 15–16 million barrels per day — still 7–8 million barrels below pre‑conflict levels, but well above the March low of 5–6 million barrels.
Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on revenue sharing from the strategic waterway, but Tehran has stressed that the deal does not guarantee an immediate reopening of the strait. At the same time, the Trump administration has told mediators that it is not interested in returning to the terms of the preliminary deal with Iran reached in June and subsequently collapsed.
Thus, the partial recovery of supplies is keeping prices from rising, while persistent geopolitical uncertainty prevents them from falling.
August Dynamics: From $79 to $89
August started at relatively low levels. On August 5, Brent was at $83.72. By August 7, it had risen to $86.04. By the end of the month, Brent had settled firmly above $88.
| Date | Brent Price, $/bbl |
| August 5 | 83.72 |
| August 7 | 86.04 |
| August 26 | 88.27 |
| August 27 | 89.43 |
| August 28 | 88.28 |
Source: Trading Economics, investfunds.ru, EdgeX
Brent futures for October 2026 delivery traded at $88.12 per barrel. Over the course of the year, Brent experienced significant fluctuations — from $70 to $126 per barrel — due to US‑Iran negotiations and military actions.
Forecasts: $104 per Barrel in One Year
Analysts at Trading Economics expect Brent to trade at $89.85 per barrel by the end of the third quarter of 2026. The long‑term forecast is $104.26 per barrel in 12 months.
Russian Urals crude typically trades at a discount to Brent, which in recent months has fluctuated depending on logistical constraints and the sanctions regime.
Impact on the Russian Economy and Budget
For the Russian budget, drawn up on the basis of $60–65 per barrel for Urals, current Brent prices ($88–89) represent a significant margin of safety. Even accounting for the Urals discount, Russian oil is being sold well above the budgeted level, generating additional oil and gas revenues.
The strengthening of the ruble caused by high oil prices creates certain challenges for Russian exports and the budget. In August, the dollar exceeded 85 rubles, but high oil prices could have put even more upward pressure on the ruble if not for geopolitical and sanctions factors.
Equilibrium Without Answers
The global oil market is frozen in a fragile equilibrium. Gulf exports have partially recovered but not fully. Iran and Oman have agreed on revenue sharing, but the strait remains under threat. Trump does not want to return to the June deal, but escalation is not providing market stability.
Open questions remain. How long will the partial supply recovery last if Iran hardens its position again? Will Trump agree to a new diplomatic compromise, or will the war continue? And most importantly — are global markets ready for $100 oil to become the new normal, as analysts predict?
For now, Brent is holding above $88, and forecasts point to $104 in a year. The oil market remains a hostage of geopolitics. The answers to these questions will be determined not in London or New York, but in Tehran, Washington and Muscat — where the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, and therefore the price of a barrel, is being decided.
