MOSCOW (Realist English). Russia is expected to increase its pipeline exports of natural gas to China by around 25% this year as it accelerates its pivot toward Asian markets, according to a source familiar with the data. The rise, however, will not compensate for the sharp loss of revenue caused by the collapse of gas sales to Europe.
The source said Gazprom plans to deliver about 38.6–38.7 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline, up from 31 bcm in 2024 and slightly above the pipeline’s designed annual capacity of 38 bcm. Gazprom has not commented, though its chief executive Alexei Miller said earlier that flows would exceed 38 bcm this year.
The increase reflects Moscow’s broader effort to redirect energy exports eastward after ties with Europe deteriorated following the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022. While Russia has successfully rerouted most of its oil exports to India and China, diverting gas has been far more difficult due to infrastructure constraints and prolonged negotiations.
During a visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to China in September, the two countries agreed to raise annual deliveries on the Power of Siberia route by an additional 6 bcm, eventually reaching 44 bcm. They also reaffirmed support for the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which could one day carry up to 50 bcm of gas annually from Russia’s Yamal region via Mongolia, although pricing disputes remain unresolved.
China has separately agreed to increase imports via a pipeline from Sakhalin Island in Russia’s Far East to 12 bcm a year, up from 10 bcm previously, with the route expected to come online in 2027.
Despite rising volumes to Asia, Russia’s gas export revenues remain far below levels once generated in Europe. The economy ministry estimates that income from gas sales to China will be 30–40% lower than the value of exports to Europe between 2025 and 2028.
With transit via Ukraine halted and TurkStream now the only remaining route supplying Europe, Russia’s gas earnings have fallen sharply. Finance ministry data show gas exports brought about 420 billion roubles ($5.3 billion) into the state budget between January and November, with full-year revenue projected at roughly 470 billion roubles — down 71% from the record 1.63 trillion roubles in 2022, when European gas prices surged.
The data underline the limits of Russia’s energy pivot: while exports to China are rising in volume, the loss of the European market continues to weigh heavily on overall revenues.
