TEHRAN (Realist English). On 17 August, the 60‑day memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran expired without producing a breakthrough in negotiations.
A senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Brigadier General Yadollah Javani, has declared that Iran’s defensive posture will now shift to an offensive one.
Tehran has also warned of “strategic surprises” for the enemy and intensified military activity in the region.
Expiration of the memorandum
The memorandum of understanding was signed on 17 June 2026 with Pakistan’s mediation. The document provided for an immediate cessation of hostilities and opened a 60‑day window for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief and the restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the truce was broken as early as 7 July, when the US resumed strikes on Iran after accusing Tehran of attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, the sides have exchanged sporadic strikes, and the diplomatic process has effectively reached a dead end.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry has stated that the 60‑day deadline has “lost all legal force,” as the US “violated the memorandum in the crudest manner” just weeks after it was signed.
Shift to an offensive strategy
In an interview with state television, Brigadier General Yadollah Javani, the IRGC’s deputy commander for political affairs, announced a change in military doctrine:
“From now on, any action we take, even if it is defensive in nature, must have an offensive character.”
He also warned the US and Israel that Iran’s armed forces “will adopt transformative approaches” and that the enemy will face “strategic surprises.” Javani clarified that these changes are being carried out in accordance with new decrees from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
Timeline: from memorandum to deadlock
| Date | Event |
| 17 June 2026 | Memorandum of understanding signed with Pakistan’s mediation |
| 7 July 2026 | US resumes strikes, accusing Iran of attacking vessels |
| July – August 2026 | Sporadic exchanges of strikes, diplomatic stalemate |
| 17 August 2026 | 60‑day memorandum expires |
| 17 August 2026 | Iran announces shift to offensive strategy |
Preparation for a wider war
According to The Wall Street Journal, during the 60 days of the memorandum, Iran was not engaged in diplomacy but was preparing for escalation:
- ramping up production of missiles and drones;
- appointing hardline figures to key positions;
- the IRGC deploying advisers to its allies in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon to coordinate a regional conflict.
Arab intelligence services have recorded a “strategic shift” in Iran’s leadership aimed at “preparing forces for a wider war.”
Tehran, according to sources, believes that the US and Israel are using the truce merely to buy time and reduce pressure on global markets ahead of a new phase of hostilities.
Positions of the parties
| Side | Position |
| Iran | Shift to offensive strategy, threats of “strategic surprises,” maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz |
| US | Maintaining naval blockade, reversing sanctions relief, Trump threatens to declare Hormuz “US territory” |
| Pakistan (mediator) | Role in signing the memorandum; further position unspecified |
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ceased. On 16 August, on the eve of the memorandum’s expiration, no vessels transited the strait. Before the war, about a fifth of global oil and LNG trade passed through it.
Iran continues to hold control over the strait, using it as leverage against Washington. On 16 August, Iranian military authorities announced a $30,000 bounty for every US serviceman killed or captured – with the amount doubled to $60,000 if the act is carried out by a woman.
Expert opinion: ‘The memorandum was doomed from the start’
A Middle East analyst and senior fellow at a Washington‑based strategic studies centre noted:
“The memorandum was too vague and asymmetric – it gave Iran more than it gave the US. Trump wanted a quick political win before the elections, but Tehran used these 60 days to prepare for war, not for peace. Now we are entering a dangerous phase: Iran is shifting to an offensive strategy, while US ammunition and patience are running out. The coming weeks could be decisive.”
Analysis: from truce to confrontation
The expiration of the memorandum and Iran’s shift to an offensive strategy mark a new phase in the US‑Iran confrontation.
Tehran used the 60‑day truce to build up its military potential and prepare for escalation, rather than pursue diplomacy.
The US, for its part, is maintaining its naval blockade and threatening new sanctions, but is facing ammunition shortages and the approach of midterm elections.
However, key questions remain. How real are Iran’s threats of “strategic surprises”? Does the US have the resources to continue the conflict amid domestic political pressure? And most importantly – can diplomacy return to the table, or have the sides entered a phase of full‑scale war? The coming weeks will be decisive.
