WASHINGTON (Realist English). On 18 August, the total US national debt exceeded the $40 trillion mark for the first time in history.
According to Treasury Department data, the total outstanding obligations of the federal government reached $40.047 trillion , including $32.266 trillion in debt held by the public and $7.782 trillion in intragovernmental obligations. Just five months earlier, in March 2026, the debt stood at $39 trillion.
Growth dynamics: from $20 trillion to $40 trillion in a decade
Over the past ten years, the US national debt has more than doubled. In January 2017, when Donald Trump first took office, the debt stood at $19.95 trillion. Over Trump’s two terms (2017–2021 and since January 2025), the increase amounted to $11.6 trillion , of which $3.8 trillion** came since January 2025. During Joe Biden’s four‑year term, public debt rose by $8.4 trillion.
Approximately one‑third of the decade’s total increase came from emergency borrowing during the COVID‑19 pandemic, undertaken by both the Trump and Biden administrations. The rest is the result of a long‑term imbalance between spending on social programmes and revenues constrained by tax cuts.
| Period | Debt Increase |
| Trump (2017–2021) | $7.8 trillion |
| Biden (2021–2025) | $8.4 trillion |
| Trump (since January 2025) | $3.8 trillion |
| Total since 2017 to 2026 | ~$20 trillion |
Source: US Treasury Department, data as of August 2026
Causes: rising spending and falling revenues
The federal budget deficit for the first ten months of fiscal year 2026 has already exceeded the total deficit for the entire 2025 fiscal year. In July, the fourth‑largest monthly deficit in US history was recorded – $432 billion.
Key factors driving debt growth:
- Interest payments – for the first ten months of fiscal year 2026, they amounted to $1.17 trillion , up 15% from the same period last year. Interest on the debt has become the third‑largest budget item after healthcare and social security.
- Social programme spending – costs for Medicare and benefits for elderly citizens continue to rise.
- Tax cuts – they constrain the revenue side of the budget.
Expert reaction: ‘The staggering predictability of fiscal decline’
Analysts and budget organisations had been warning for weeks that the $40 trillion threshold was approaching. Maya MacGuineas, head of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said:
“$40 trillion of debt exists not only on government balance sheets – it is felt throughout the economy and ends up in people’s pockets one way or another. The more we borrow, the more we fuel inflation, crowd out other budget priorities and leave ourselves vulnerable to emergencies at home and shocks abroad.”
MacGuineas also noted that the $40 trillion mark was reached less than five months after $39 trillion. By comparison, it took from 1776 to 1981 – more than 200 years – for the debt to reach $1 trillion. “It is staggering how predictable the fiscal decline of a global power can become,” she added.
Peterson Foundation CEO Michael Peterson warned that the debt already exceeds 122% of US GDP ($31.87 trillion in the first quarter of 2026):
“Every trillion we add to the debt contributes to higher interest rates and inflation, increasing mortgage payments, auto loans and credit card bills for all Americans.”
Market consequences: bond yields at 2007 highs
Amid record debt, investors are demanding ever higher compensation for the risk of holding US government securities. The yield on 30‑year Treasuries rose to 5.3% – the highest since the 1990s. The yield on 10‑year Treasuries reached its highest level since 2007.
Demand from foreign investors, who hold nearly one‑third of all Treasuries, has been declining over the past year, leaving more bonds for price‑sensitive buyers and potentially increasing market volatility.
In response, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a doubling of buyback operations for 10–30 year bonds – to at least $4 billion per operation – to reduce long‑term yields. Earlier, he had set a target of reducing the US deficit to 3% of GDP.
Statutory ceiling: $41.1 trillion – less than a year away
The current statutory debt ceiling is set at $41.1 trillion . According to Bipartisan Policy Center estimates, the US will reach this limit sometime between late winter and mid‑summer 2027.
Expert opinion: ‘The debt spiral is accelerating’
The chief economist of the Institute of International Finance (IIF) told the press:
“Crossing the $40 trillion mark is not just a psychological threshold – it is a marker of a systemic problem. The United States has entered a debt spiral: servicing the debt requires ever more borrowing, which itself increases the debt.
Interest payments of $1.17 trillion over ten months are more than the budgets of many countries. If Treasury yields remain at current levels, by 2030 interest costs could exceed defence spending. The question is not whether the debt will reach $50 trillion, but when and what policy decisions will follow.”
Record debt and elections
Crossing the $40 trillion mark came just two months before the midterm elections. According to a Peterson Foundation poll, 94% of voters are more likely to support a candidate who proposes a plan to reduce the debt.
Trump, commenting on the situation, said: “I don’t think Americans should worry about bond market volatility. We have a very powerful country, and we are breaking through these ridiculous interest rates.”
However, analysts warn that at the current pace of borrowing, the national debt could reach $50 trillion as early as 2029. As Brookings Institution economist Jessica Riddle noted, a deficit of 6–7% of GDP (compared to the 3–4% that once concerned markets) is making investors increasingly nervous.
