YEREVAN (Realist English). The European Union is preparing an accelerated package of measures to improve trade relations with Armenia, against the backdrop of Russian restrictions on imports from the republic. According to the Financial Times, citing sources, the European Commission is developing so-called autonomous trade measures that would reduce tariffs on Armenian food and agricultural exports.
However, behind Brussels’s seemingly benevolent gesture lies a clear geopolitical game — a struggle for influence in the South Caucasus.
‘Emergency’ aid from the EU
According to the publication, the measures cover about 20 product categories, with a total annual volume estimated at €420 million. Brussels aims to help Armenian producers hit by recent Russian restrictions, which the EU views as politically motivated.
European Commission official Olof Gill said the measures would help Armenian businesses access the EU market and support the country’s economy. Brussels does not hide that this is being done to “compete with Russia for influence over the future of the Caucasian republic.”
It is telling that the EU is rushing to offer Armenian producers new markets precisely at a time when Russia has imposed restrictions on a range of goods from Armenia — from flowers and fruit to fish and alcohol. The Russian side attributes this to phytosanitary violations, but Yerevan and Brussels prefer to see only political motives behind it.
Military alliance with the West: Paris congratulates Yerevan
Alongside the EU’s economic moves, Armenia’s military‑political cooperation with Western partners is also intensifying. Armenian Defence Minister Suren Papikyan met in Paris with French Minister of the Armed Forces and Veterans’ Affairs Catherine Vautrin. They discussed bilateral and multilateral cooperation, prospects for its expansion and deepening, as well as regional and international security issues.
Vautrin congratulated Papikyan on the victory of the Civil Contract party in the parliamentary elections. The gesture speaks volumes: Paris is openly showing support for the ruling regime in Yerevan, without even waiting for the formal confirmation of the election results.
Pashinyan’s tax records: figures and context
On June 16, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reported on the implementation of the state budget for 2025. According to him, tax revenues to Armenia’s state budget in 2025 increased by 135% compared to 2017. State budget revenues amounted to 2 trillion 886.5 billion drams, which is 11% more than in 2024.
The figures are impressive. But the natural question arises: who is this statistic really addressed to? External creditors awaiting confirmation of Yerevan’s solvency? Or the population, whom the government is trying to convince of the success of its course, while simultaneously preparing the ground for a new wave of external borrowing?
‘Legitimacy’ of peace, Pashinyan‑style
The same Pashinyan, in a parliamentary speech, said that the fact of peace with Azerbaijan recorded in 2025 was “legitimised by the choice and vote of the Armenian people in the 2026 parliamentary elections.” The prime minister’s logic is simple: if the people voted for his party, then they also approved the terms of the peace that Yerevan accepted.
However, this rhetoric does not withstand criticism. First, the very “peace with Azerbaijan” in 2025 is a highly stretchable concept. It refers to Armenia’s de facto capitulation on a number of issues, including the abandonment of control over Nagorno‑Karabakh. Second, legitimising foreign‑policy decisions through domestic elections is a dubious democratic device, especially against the backdrop of mass criminal cases against the opposition brought by the authorities on the eve of the vote.
Pashinyan is essentially appropriating the people’s mandate for a policy that was the subject of fierce debate in Armenian society just a year ago.
Yerevan between Brussels and Moscow
A paradoxical picture emerges. Armenia’s economy shows growth in tax revenues, but this growth is happening against the backdrop of losing key external markets. Russia is closing its market to Armenian products, the EU is rushing to offer alternative routes, but the price of this offer is deepening military‑political cooperation with the West, which inevitably distances Yerevan from Moscow.
The Armenian authorities appear to be betting on a multi‑vector policy, but in reality they are increasingly tilting westward. Trade preferences from the EU, military contacts with France, public statements about the “legitimacy” of peace with Azerbaijan — all are links in the same chain. The question is whether Yerevan will be able to maintain balance without losing the remnants of trust either in the East or the West.
