WASHINGTON (Realist English). On July 14, a meeting was held in the White House Situation Room with the participation of Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and other senior officials.
According to Axios, citing sources, the meeting discussed a “large-scale strike on Iran that would be broader in scope than the current strikes around the Strait of Hormuz.”
Against the backdrop of a frozen investigation into the tragedy in the Iranian city of Minab, where on February 28, 2026, a US strike destroyed a girls’ elementary school, killing 175 people, including 168 children, the Trump administration is considering further escalation. At the same time, polls show that most Americans do not believe the president can negotiate a better deal with Iran than Barack Obama did in 2015.
Investigation Under Wraps: CENTCOM Blocks the Truth
Nearly five months after the strike on the Shajareh Tayyebeh school, the Pentagon has still not conducted a standard intelligence review that could establish the full picture of what happened.
According to CNN, citing three sources familiar with the matter, within a week of the strike, the first two phases of the “battle damage assessment” were completed — they addressed basic questions: whether the strike hit the target and whether it caused damage.
However, the third, standard phase of the review was never conducted. This phase involves analysts from the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) examining the full range of satellite imagery and other intelligence to provide a more complete picture of the incident. Such a review is usually carried out immediately after notable strikes, but as of early July, it had not begun.
CNN sources report that information obtained from interviews with service members involved in the strike was “blocked” by US Central Command (CENTCOM). Only a few officers have access to the details.
“No detailed analysis was conducted, and CENTCOM blocked the investigation, preventing anyone from studying it,” one source said.
A Pentagon spokesman told CNN that “the investigation is ongoing” and “we have nothing to announce yet.” US officials claim that the Pentagon’s internal investigation was supposed to replace the traditional third-phase assessment, and that both processes could not proceed simultaneously.
At the same time, one source stressed that the decision to launch the investigation should not have prevented the DIA from conducting a more thorough third-phase review: “both processes could have happened simultaneously if they had wanted to.”
As The Jerusalem Post notes, the absence of a full intelligence review is unprecedented for such a significant strike.
Outdated Intelligence and Ignored Warnings
Earlier, on July 7, CNN reported that senior US military commanders ignored warnings in critical databases that intelligence on potential targets in Iran was seriously outdated, and approved strikes based on old information. The decision to ignore the warnings was made “for convenience” and led to the accidental strike on the school.
According to Reuters, investigators concluded that multiple failures led to the misidentification of the school, including unheeded remarks from a 2019 analyst that the site had changed its status from naval to educational.
Trump: “I Don’t Think There Can Be a Final Report”
President Donald Trump appears uninterested in releasing the investigation’s findings. In a Fox News interview on July 15, he said the military investigation’s conclusions would likely never see the light of day.
“I know we’re waiting for the final report. I don’t think there can be a final report… Maybe there’s a reason they can’t [release the report],” Trump said.
When a journalist noted that footage from the site showed fragments of a US Tomahawk missile, the president replied: “Maybe those images are AI-generated.”
CIA Warns: “Iran May Respond More Seriously”
As the Trump administration discusses expanding the military campaign, it has received a troubling signal from the CIA. According to The Wall Street Journal, US intelligence warned that Iran may be ready to deliver a “more serious and broader response” to any US strikes, including a possible ground operation.
According to intelligence, Iran is considering using its proxy forces in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen to launch coordinated strikes on US and Israeli targets. In addition, Tehran may use longer‑range ballistic missiles than previously employed.
One official familiar with the intelligence told the WSJ: “Iran is not just showing strength — it is preparing for escalation. Any expansion of US strikes could trigger a response that extends far beyond the Persian Gulf.”
Americans Don’t Believe in Success: Poll
While the administration debates escalation, US public opinion shows growing scepticism. According to a Washington Post‑Ipsos poll, only 23% of Americans believe Trump can negotiate a better deal with Iran than Obama did in 2015. Meanwhile, 37% think Trump will strike a worse deal.
Even among Republicans, only slightly more than half (54%) believe Trump will achieve a better deal. Among independents, the figure drops to 13%.
As CNN notes, this reflects Trump’s failure to build public support for the war, which is becoming an increasingly serious political burden. Trump has mentioned Obama’s nuclear deal more than thirty times since the war began, but his rhetoric has not convinced most Americans.
“Trump went to war, paying with the lives of more than a dozen Americans, spending tens of billions of dollars, and shaking the global economy. And the end of the war is still not in sight,” CNN concludes.
The situation around the Iran dossier remains extremely tense. The Pentagon continues to cover up the circumstances of the Minab tragedy, while Trump oscillates between escalation and diplomacy. At the same time, US public opinion is increasingly sceptical of his approach.
As The Jerusalem Post notes, the Pentagon fears a repeat of the situation during the 12‑day war of June 2025, when a DIA assessment undermined Trump’s claims of “destroying” Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Then‑DIA Director Jeffrey Kruse was fired after his analysis diverged from the White House’s official line.
The question of whether Trump will approve a ground operation in Iran remains open. As WSJ sources note, if the president approves these plans, the war, which has already lasted nearly five months, would enter its most dangerous phase, drawing the US deeper into the Middle East crisis and creating serious risks for Republicans in the November midterm elections.
