MOSCOW (Realist English). On 10 August, Russia’s Ministry of Energy reported on the situation in the aviation kerosene market. According to the ministry’s forecast, fuel production in August 2026 will reach the level of August 2025, representing a 4% increase compared to July 2026.
Aviation kerosene inventories at the start of August are at standard levels. The Energy Ministry stressed that current production volumes are sufficient to fully meet domestic demand, and the market is balanced, including through the use of domestically produced fuel.
If necessary, inventories can be further increased through current production.
The situation in the aviation fuel market is under constant monitoring by the Energy Ministry, together with the Ministry of Transport and the Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya).
Aviation kerosene production dynamics in Russia
| Period | Production Level | Change |
| July 2026 | Baseline level | — |
| August 2026 (forecast) | +4% compared to July 2026 | Growth |
| August 2026 | At the level of August 2025 | Recovery |
Source: Russian Ministry of Energy
Context: imports and export restrictions
In early July 2026, reports emerged that Russia was considering the possibility of importing aviation kerosene from Japan via traders – a shipment of at least 200,000 barrels from the Japanese city of Chiba was expected. The last such delivery took place in 2022.
Earlier, the Russian government imposed a temporary ban on the export of aviation kerosene, which will remain in effect until 30 November 2026. In June, Transport Minister Andrey Nikitin stated that the ministry had not recorded any shortages of aviation kerosene on the domestic market.
Strengths and pressure points
The forecast 4% increase in production and the return to last year’s August levels are positive signals for the aviation industry, indicating a recovery in output after possible July declines.
Standard inventory levels and a balanced market reduce the risks of fuel shortages during the peak summer travel season.
However, certain challenges remain. The export ban on kerosene, in effect until November, suggests that authorities prefer to err on the side of caution rather than relying exclusively on domestic production.
Furthermore, the parallel consideration of potential imports from Japan indicates that the Energy Ministry is keeping options open for unforeseen supply disruptions or a sharp rise in demand.
For airlines and passengers, the key question is whether production can sustain the stated growth rates amid potential logistical or seasonal constraints – or whether the market will once again require import supplies to cover any shortfall.
