MOSCOW (Realist English). August 2026 has been a month of contradictions for Russia’s oil and gas sector.
On the one hand, the overall statistics for January–July show a worrying decline: according to the Finance Ministry, oil and gas revenues of the federal budget amounted to 4.595 trillion roubles, which is 16.7% less than in the same period of 2025. On the other hand, July’s figures were the highest of the year: 934 billion roubles, 18.6% more than in July 2025.
In August, the Finance Ministry forecasts additional oil and gas revenues of 114.23 billion roubles. However, experts agree that even the record July receipts are unable to reverse the deteriorating budget dynamics.
July’s Record: How Rising Oil Prices Affected the Budget
The main driver of the increase in oil and gas revenues in July was the rise in global oil prices amid instability in energy markets. In July, oil and gas revenues reached 934 billion roubles — 36.6% more than in June and 18.6% higher than in July 2025.
According to the Central Bank of Russia, the economy received approximately $30 billion in additional export revenues in the second quarter.
The structure of July’s receipts is as follows:
| Indicator | July 2026, billion RUB | Change (month‑on‑month) | Change (year‑on‑year) |
| MET (oil) | 584.6 | -30.2% | +7.6% |
| MET (gas) | 57.4 | -11.3% | +12.3% |
| MET (condensate) | 50.3 | -23.9% | +27.0% |
| Export duty | 51.1 | +5.8% | +~100% |
| Additional income tax | 396.1 | — | +31.1% |
The base monthly volume in July amounted to 642.1 billion roubles (compared with 474 billion in June), while additional revenues reached 291.9 billion roubles (compared with 209.6 billion the previous month).
August Forecast: 114 Billion and the Budget Rule
In August, the Finance Ministry expects additional oil and gas revenues of 114.23 billion roubles. The deviation of actual receipts from the forecast in July was 21.94 billion roubles.
Based on these amounts, under the budget rule, purchases of foreign currency and gold for the National Welfare Fund (NWF) from August 7 to September 4 will amount to 6.5 billion roubles per day. The total volume of funds allocated for currency and gold purchases will be 136.17 billion roubles.
This is 20% more than in July, when the daily volume of operations was 5.4 billion roubles. Analysts note that the Finance Ministry is using the budget rule as a tool for exchange‑rate management: a weaker rouble helps replenish the budget and support exporters under the current market conditions.
Urals Price: From $40 to $90
The dynamics of Russian oil prices in August were volatile. At the start of the year, Urals fell to $40 per barrel and below. In the second quarter, the price rose to $82.
| Period | Urals Price, $/bbl | Source |
| January 2026 | $40 and below | Fox News |
| Q2 2026 | ~$82 | Fox News |
| July 2026 (average) | ~$65 | CBonds |
| August 19 | $88.85 | Finance Ministry |
| August 20 | ~$90.15 | Fomag.ru |
| August 31 | $77.10 | Delo.ua |
By the end of August, oil prices remained volatile: Brent traded around $90 per barrel, with Urals at about $77. Analysts forecast oil prices to remain in the $85–95 per barrel range in the near term amid continued uncertainty in global markets.
Budget Deficit: 6.5 Trillion and Rising Expenditure
Despite the July surge in revenues, the fundamental picture of Russia’s budget continues to worsen. Over the first seven months of 2026, the federal budget deficit reached 6.455 trillion roubles — a sum equal to Moscow’s annual budget.
Revenues grew by 8.8% (to 22.112 trillion roubles), but expenditure increased almost twice as fast — by 14.5%, to 28.567 trillion roubles. The deficit is already nearly double the planned annual target (3.786 trillion roubles).
As Finam strategist Yaroslav Kabakov notes, “the fundamental picture for the budget continues to worsen: oil and gas revenues over 7 months fell by 16.8%, and the growth in VAT collections (up 24.9%) barely compensates for this shortfall.” In his forecast, the budget deficit could approach 10 trillion roubles by the end of the year.
Ilya Sokolov, a leading researcher at the Gaidar Institute, warns that the surge in oil and gas revenues in July proved short‑lived and could be offset by subsequent declines in oil prices, as well as rising costs to support the refining industry.
A Reprieve, Not a Solution
High oil prices have given the government additional time, but have not solved fundamental problems. Analysts note that the current level of oil and gas revenues helps smooth budget imbalances, but the long‑term sustainability of the budget remains in question.
Open questions remain. Can the Finance Ministry maintain oil and gas revenues at July’s level if Urals prices fall back to $70–75, as happened by the end of August? Will the budget withstand rising expenditure, which significantly outpaces the revenue base? And most importantly — how long will the “oil cushion” last if global oil prices stabilise at lower levels?
For now, August shows that Russia’s oil and gas revenues remain hostage to global market conditions. July’s record was the result of a temporary price surge, not systemic improvement. And when the market situation changes, the Russian budget will most likely face renewed pressure.
